QUOTA POLITICS
Reservations for people in the general category is a political no-brainer. It’s why, back in 1991, P.V. Narasimha Rao proposed exactly such a scheme only to run up against a Supreme Court that would not be swayed by political expedience. And it’s why the BJP’s latest proposition, to offer 10 per cent reservations to those in the general category who are struggling economically, has had such a smooth ride from ordinarily combative opposition politicians. Some doubts may have been raised about the timing of the proposition and the unlikeliness that it would be implemented, but no politician or party will risk being seen to deny people the right to reservations. It will require the Constitution to be amended and it will require the Supreme Court’s cap on reservations to be raised from 50 per cent to 60 per cent, but the government will be keen to create, in the months before the general election, at least the perception that it has the betterment of its core supporters at the forefront of its policy ambitions.
Electorally convenient or not, the surprise proposal to increase reservations has put a spring back in the BJP’s faltering stride. The party’s air of invincibility had been punctured in recent assembly elections, particularly in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where the margins of victory might have been narrow but the shift in momentum was marked. BJP sources gleefully described the proposition as “gamechanging”. The recent election defeats were attributed, at least in part, to the disgruntlement of upper caste voters
who felt deserted by the BJP as it actively wooed Dalits, even overruling the Supreme Court’s amendments to the so-called ‘Atrocities Act’, which sought to reduce the potential for arbitrary arrests, given the stringent punishments for crimes committed against Scheduled Castes and Tribes. In MP, for instance, in 11 seats, the number of NOTA votes exceeded the margin of the BJP candidates’ defeats, suggesting that some BJP voters had chosen to use their votes to register their anger rather than vote for the Congress. Those 11 seats would have enabled the BJP to form the government.
The perceived electoral benefits of reservations explains why the government is so eager to talk up what is in essence an old proposal. Union home minister Rajnath Singh described what is still only an idea on paper as a “historic development”. Many promised it, he added, “or tried to do it but it is we who have finally done it”. The question of whether the BJP has indeed ‘done it’ will, of course, be settled in court. In 1992, the apex court had ruled that poverty alone was an insufficient condition to grant reservations, that there had to be accompanying social and educational ‘backwardness’. Also, what the government defines as ‘economically weak’ for the purposes of the new reservations category is raising eyebrows.
According to available data, the vast majority of Indians (over 90 per cent) make less than the Rs 8 lakh necessary to be considered ‘creamy layer’. The vast majority (over 85 per cent) of farmers own less than the five acres of land decided as another cutoff. And the vast majority of Indians, urban or rural, live in less than the 1,000 sq. ft the government deems sufficient to not require assistance in the form of reservations. (Also, 1,000 sq. ft in Delhi are not the same as 1,000 sq. ft in, say, Dharwad.) Clearly, an unusually large number of people will now be eligible for reservations. Indeed, if you’re not eligible, you’re in a tiny minority, the top five or so per cent of earners in the country.
Can the government claim to be helping the economically weaker sections of ‘forward’ caste Hindus, Christians and Muslims if practically everyone in the country is eligible for that help? On the flip side, perhaps it is this inclusiveness that will reap electoral dividends for the BJP. No one can fairly claim to feel left out and it might whip out the rug from under the likes of Hardik Patel in Gujarat, and others seeking reservations for communities that wouldn’t ordinarily qualify.
Most critics accept that the stiffest challenge to the government’s proposal will come from the courts. It is where other such proposals have foundered. The question will have to be settled again: what are reservations for and who are they intended to help?