HICCUPS ON THE HOME STRETCH
Will the loss of face in Maharashtra, falling economic graph and rising onion prices take a toll on the BJP’s prospects in the state or will local issues decide the verdict?
Having just swallowed humilation in Maharashtra and the embarrassment of a further slide in national GDP—which is down to 4.5 per cent—not to mention the runaway increase in onion prices, the ongoing assembly election in Jharkhand will test and measure the BJP’s electoral standing. The NDA has lost power in four states in the past 11 months—MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra. This election is also expected to decide the fate of some of the state’s prominent politicians. They include current chief minister Raghubar Das of the BJP, Hemant Soren of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Babulal Marandi of the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) and Sudesh Mahto of the AJSU (All Jharkhand Students Union)
Party. The first phase of polling for 13 of Jharkhand’s 81 seats concluded on November 30. There will be four more phases till December 20 before results are declared on December 23.
Of course, as conventional wisdom has it, people vote differently in state elections, with local issues taking precedence over national ones. The BJP is also, as usual, banking on the ‘Modi magic’. The prime minister and home minister Amit Shah have already campaigned in the state. The party also has a psychological edge—it has been the single largest party in all the assembly elections held in Jharkhand till date.
There is also the goodwill Das—the first chief minister to complete a full term in the state—has built with his government’s development initiatives. It helped him pilot the BJP-led NDA’s 12-seat victory in the Lok Sabha election in May, with the BJP alone notching a 51 per cent vote share. Not just that, in the 2014 assembly election, though the 44 per cent combined vote share of the JMM-JVM-Congress alliance was higher than the 35 per cent votes the BJP-AJSU Party alliance polled, the former could win only 33 seats among them. The NDA, by contrast walked away with 42 seats (BJP 37, AJSU 5), bagging a simple majority in the 82-member assembly.
The Opposition, however, is quick to point out that the BJP had a favourable result in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll too but scraped through in the assembly election the same year, with a victory margin of less than 5,000 votes in eight seats. The party’s performance in the assembly bypolls in recent years has also been dismal. Of the five seats it contested in the bypolls between December 2015 and December 2018, the BJP won only one, while ally AJSU Party lost both the seats it contested.
Also, for the first time since Jharkhand was formed in 2000, the BJP will not have an alliance partner. AJSU, which was part of the government and which contested the general election in alliance with the BJP, has walked out of the NDA fold. Headed by Mahto, the party has fielded candidates in 53 seats. If he succeeds in rallying the backward caste voters in general and the Mahto voters in particular, he will cut into the BJP vote.
Cabinet colleague Saryu Roy will be another thorn in Das’s side. He is contesting from the CM’s Jamshedpur East seat after the BJP denied him a ticket. He is no pushover though Das has never lost an election so far, winning by 70,000 votes in 2014.
Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi has been campaigning actively in the state, promising welfare measures to farmers. The Congress is part of the JMM-led alliance, with JMM working president Soren as its chief ministerial candidate. The Opposition alliance is also hoping to corner a large chunk of the tribal vote—26.3 per cent of the electorate in the state. Twenty-eight of the state’s 82 seats are reserved for tribals. The Congress, JMM and JVM have tribal politicians as their presidents. However, to the BJP’s credit, it was on par with JMM in the 2014 state poll, winning 11 of the reserved seats; the tribal Mundas have traditionally supported the BJP.
The BJP is also hoping to win the numerically significant non-Yadav backward class vote along with the non-Muslim, non-tribal vote. The BJP plans to project Das as a backward class leader given that he is from the Teli caste and the state’s first non-tribal chief minister.
The BJP has also not closed its doors on the AJSU. “Our fate will be linked to the AJSU’s performance. Every vote they bag will be a minus from our kitty,” says a senior BJP leader. The party, for instance, has not announced a candidate for the Silli seat against AJSU chief Mahto, a move that many believe might come in handy in the post-poll scenario.
Meanwhile, JVM chief Marandi is trying to make it a triangular contest. Having fielded candidates in all 81 seats, the JVM is hoping to win 20-odd seats. Marandi hopes to play kingmaker in the event of a hung assembly. Marandi was unwilling to accept Soren’s leadership. The JMM and JVM have the same vote bank—tribals in general and Santhals in particular—and Marandi feared he might end up losing his stature and his vote bank if he accepted Soren’s leadership, say sources. The JMM-Congress-RJD alliance is also believed to have left just 10 seats for Marandi, which was unacceptable to the man who was chief minister for 28 months. ■