BJP Needs a Sixer
The party needs to win at least six of the 15 bypoll seats to remain in power, but cadre discontent at the local level threatens to upset plans
The December 5 bypolls for 15 assembly seats in Karnataka are turning into a nerve-wracking contest for the BJP, which must overcome local discontent and win at least six seats to remain in power.
The bypolls were necessitated as the strength of the 225-member state assembly dropped to 208 following the disqualification of 17 MLAs (13 from the Congress, three of the Janata Dal-Secular or JD(S) and one Independent). Sixteen of them had joined the BJP. Elections, though, are being held for 15 seats as petitions relating to the 2018 assembly polls in Maski and Rajarajeshwari Nagar are pending in court. The results will be out on December 9. The BJP, which has a strength of 106 (including the speaker and one Independent), needs another 6-7 MLAs to achieve a simple majority of 112 in the reduced 223-member house.
Of the 15 seats, the BJP is expected to win hands down in four—K.R. Pura, Mahalakshmi Layout, Vijayanagara and Yellapur. It was expecting a cakewalk in Gokak, Hirekerur, Athani and Chikkaballapur too, but has, of late, been hit by disgruntlement among local leaders and workers against candidates accommodated from other parties. “The BJP expected its local leaders to fall in line, but they feel let down, especially in Hirekerur, Hosakote, Athani, Kagawad and Gokak,” says Dr B. Manjunath, a political research scholar with Bangalore University.
Sensing the BJP’s anxiety, senior Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge has hinted at a post-poll alliance with the JD-S. “If the BJP wins fewer than six seats, the Congress (66 MLAs) and the JD-S (34) have a remote chance of forming the government,” says Bengaluru-based analyst A. Veerappa.
The JD(S) is expected to win Hunsur, Krishnarajapet and Yeshvanthapura in south Karnataka. The Congress is smelling victory in Ranebennur,
Shivajinagar and Kagawad. In Hirekerur, B.C. Patil, who won the 2018 assembly poll as a Congress candidate by a margin of just 555 votes, is pitted against senior Congress leader B.H. Bannikod. The BJP’s U.B. Banakar, who lost to Patil in 2018, is not seen as actively campaigning for the party nominee.
In Kagawad, former BJP leader Raju Kage, who lost the 2018 poll to then Congress candidate Shrimanth
Patil, is upset. With the BJP fielding Patil, Kage has switched over to the Congress. The contest between the two is considered to be an even one.
In Gokak, Ramesh Jarakiholi, considered to be the architect of the Congress-JD(S) government’s collapse earlier this year, faces an uphill task against brother Lakhan Jarakiholi, the Congress candidate.
A strong factor against the BJP is the handling of flood relief by the B.S. Yediyurappa government in the Mumbai-Karnataka region. “Karnataka received a pittance as flood relief compared to other states. BJP candidates are struggling to explain this to the people,” says Rajesh Patil, a Dharwad-based historian.
Chikkaballapur is considered to be a stronghold of the JD(S) and the
THE CONGRESS IS CONFIDENT OF A SWEEP. “WE WILL WIN AT LEAST 12 SEATS. THE POLITICAL CLIMATE WILL CHANGE,” SAYS SIDDARAMAIAH
Congress. Former Congress leader K. Sudhakar is contesting the seat on a BJP ticket. His fortunes will be decided by the dominant Vokkaliga community, which supports the JD(S). In neighbouring Hosakote, veteran Congress leader M.T.B. Nagaraju is staring at defeat as BJP rebel Sharath Bache Gowda has emerged as a dark horse.
Veerappa feels a focused campaign would have helped the Congress put up a stronger fight. Party veteran and former chief minister Siddaramaiah, however, is confident the bypolls will be a Congress show all the way. “We will win at least 12 constituencies. The political climate will change in Karnataka,” he told india today. ■