RAJASTHAN: THE RETURN OF RAJE
Former chief minister Vasundhara Raje is such an enigma in Rajasthan that any political move she makes is keenly dissected. She has been lying low after being voted out in December 2018, and with the high command rewarding leaders antithetical to her, a perception has gained ground that relations have soured between her and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his deputy Amit Shah.
February, though, marked the beginnings of a thaw. On February 3, Raje met Shah in Delhi after over two years. And while she remains mum about what transpired at the meeting, insiders say it was quite cordial. The two had been upset with each other in the past—Raje over how Shah, who is far younger and less experienced in politics, had treated her when she was chief minister, and the latter over her ignoring his directives when he was BJP president. The meeting, though, is seen as a fresh start. Insiders say Raje has spoken to Modi too in the past six months. She has been meeting a few other prominent party leaders as well, and even called on J.P. Nadda, the current party president, on February 15. It seems the stage is set for a comeback.
So why is the high command suddenly obliging Raje? Some observers say they are keen to use her in other state elections as there are few women leaders of her stature in the party. There’s also talk that she could be instrumental in getting opposition leaders who are on the fence to cross over, given her personal equation with many of them. That said, there are also Rajasthanspecific developments that explain why she is active again.
The state has byelections to four assembly seats coming up next month and Raje, sources say, has conveyed to the top leadership her concern that the party may not do well because of the infighting in the state unit. In the two bypolls held in 2019 after the BJP’s clean sweep in the Lok Sabha election, it lost the Mandawa seat it had won earlier, and ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) barely managed to retain Nagaur.
Raje’s concerns are also based on the party’s poor performance in the local body polls that got over on February 8. Elections to the local bodies are an indication of the popularity of a government among urban voters. The ruling Congress won 3,036 wards and now rules in 123 boards against the BJP’s 2,673 wards and 64 boards. The BJP and allies are now in power in only 32 per cent of the urban bodies, making it the party’s worst performance in two decades.
Raje blames the current BJP state unit for the poor show (and this came despite the ruling Congress’s troubles, including a shortlived revolt by then Pradesh Congress Committee chief Sachin Pilot). After her loss in the assembly election, the BJP high command went on an overdrive to reward those who were not in Raje’s camp. So Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, whose appointment as state party chief the exCM had scuttled, was promoted to cabinet minister; ModiShah camp follower Om Birla was made Lok Sabha speaker; and Satish Poonia, a 54yearold firsttime MLA, was made state chief. Poonia took things further by sidelining all the Raje loyalists when he announced his team.
That the latter were annoyed became apparent in recent weeks. On January 8, Nadda had called a formal meeting of the state unit but left Raje out. Poonia complained to him then about a littleknown group, the Vasundhara Raje Samarthak Rajasthan Manch, circulating a list of officebearers that included BJP leaders and workers. Then, a few days before she met Shah, there were reports of Raje launching a Goverdhan Parikrama Yatra in Bharatpur on her birthday on March 8. Raje insists it is a purely personal visit but it’s sure to bring back memories of her prepoll yatras which went a long way in building momentum against the Congress governments in 2003 and 2013.
On February 14, her loyalists in Kota—an RSS stronghold—held an interactive meeting where they declared that if Raje is not projected as the next chief minister, the party would lose the bypolls and the next assembly election. They
Raje’s concerns are also based on the party’s poor performance in the Rajasthan local body polls; it was the BJP’s worst performance in two decades
even announced a rally in the city in April which they said Raje would address. For good measure, when BJP state general secretary (organisation) Chandra Shekhar sought an explanation, they let him know that a response would be forthcoming only after they got due respect in the state unit.
State BJP chief Poonia has been taking the “nobody is bigger than the party” line and insisting it is for the party to decide roles for big leaders like Raje. “I have given representation to young leaders from underrepresented communities and it should not be construed as ignoring some established ones,” he says.
“Me, and leave the BJP?” is how Raje reacted on February 15 when questioned about the rumours floating about. “I can never leave the party that my family built with blood, sweat and our wealth. We even split up over it (a reference to her late brother Madhavrao Scindia joining the Congress). The BJP is the only family I have other than my own.”
Meanwhile, even Congress leaders are watching Raje’s moves with great interest. Many in the state, irrespective of political affiliations, are convinced that the BJP would have succeeded in toppling the Ashok Gehlot government had it entrusted her with the task. Some believe Raje even helped Gehlot by taking a stand against attempts to pull him down.
Sources say the BJP high command will soon take a relook at its strategy of isolating the Raje camp and effect some changes in the coming months. The Poonia camp wants Gulab Chand Kataria, leader of the opposition now and for long an RSS favourite, to call it a day since he has reached 75. Both Raje and Kataria oppose any such move too soon and it won’t be a surprise if Raje makes a comeback either as state BJP chief or leader of the opposition before the assembly poll. Her return will not be easy. She will have to work hard with the masses and BJP workers to negate the slogan adversaries within the party popularised during her second tenure: ‘Modi se bair nahin, Vasundhara teri khair nahin (We have no enmity with Modi, but we will not spare you, Vasundhara)’. Politics is no bed of roses and Raje knows it all too well.