BAPTISM OF FIRE

His poll promises seem to have resonated with voters, but new chief minister M.K. Stalin will be watched closely for how well he delivers on those commitments

STALIN’S FIRST BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE THE COVID SURGE. HIS PREDECESSOR, EPS, HAD HANDLED THE HEALTH CRISIS WELL

IThas been a long wait for 68-year-old Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin. On May 7, he will finally assume office and become the third chief minister of Tamil Nadu from the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a party that has ruled the state for 21 years since March 1967, when the hegemony of the Dravidian parties began. After a decade in the opposition and having emerged from the shadow of his father— five-time chief minister, the late M. Karunanidhi—Stalin has steered the 13-party Secular Progressive Alliance to a comfortable win (159 of the 234 assembly seats, including 133 on the DMK symbol; five seats are allies who contested under the ‘Rising Sun’) in the April 6 polls.

He would have hoped to do even better, going by the DMK’s sweeping victory in the 2019 parliamentary election, winning 38 out of the 39 Lok Sabha seats. But the rival All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), led by the outgoing chief minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS), proved that the party is no pushover, even in the absence of their late, iconic leader, J. Jayalalithaa. The AIADMK and its allies won 75 seats and will be an effective opposition. Meanwhile, the number of parties represented in the assembly has doubled, from four in 2016 to eight now.

However, the prospect of a lively opposition is not the biggest challenge facing Stalin. It will be fighting the Covid-19 surge. This is something his predecessor EPS handled well, even as he implemented development and welfare measures to mitigate anti-incumbency at the polls. Despite the stresses of an election year, EPS ensured that the state’s health system functioned efficiently. Tamil Nadu has set a benchmark in conducting the highest number of RT-PCR tests in the country and also has a low mortality rate of 1.19 per cent. For Stalin, the first few weeks in office may prove to be daunting as the virulent second wave of the pandemic sweeps through the state. He will be compelled to demonstrate that he can handle it as well if not better than his predecessor.

CHALLENGES AHEAD

The other looming challenge is the steep debt. The state’s debt stood at Rs 4.9 lakh crore on March 31, 2020 and is estimated to have gone up to Rs 5.7 lakh crore by March 2021, when the AIADMK presented a revenue-deficit interim budget in February. The state’s tax collection has also dipped since 2016 amidst the overall economic decline, demonetisation and introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). The state has complained about not receiving its due share, and that surcharges were not a part of the divisible pool of taxes. Despite the financial distress, also outlined in the DMK manifesto (‘every newborn in the state will carry a debt of Rs 1,25,000’), Stalin has made a litany of promises to woo voters, including a universal basic income of Rs 1,000 per month to women who head households, waiving the education loans of students less than 30 years old and a payout of Rs 1,500 to 3.2 million widows, single women above 50, the disabled and Sri Lankan refugees. “Stalin has also committed to give Rs 4,000 per family on Karunanidhi’s birth anniversary on June 3. This is a lot of money, though the intention is to put money in the hands of the consumer as traditional economists tell the Centre to do,” says political analyst N. Sathiya Moorthy.

Providing jobs to the youth and women, another poll promise, will also be a major challenge. The party has promised to usher in legislation to reserve 75 per cent of jobs for locals and has set an ambitious goal of providing 1 million jobs every year for five years. It has promised to bring in more industries and to increase the number of working days under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA) from 100 to 150 days a year. There are as yet no plans on paper (at least none for public scrutiny) on how to create jobs, increase family incomes, revive the industries in the state and rev up the economy, but a committee is being set up to develop a roadmap to face the challenges.

The expectations are high. For starters, there are the first-time voters and other youth who hope that Stalin will fight their case over the NEET (National Eligibility cum Entrance Test) and the National Education Policy (NEP) with the Centre and in the Supreme Court more sincerely than EPS did. Women, who benefited from the EPS schemes, want more of the same. Then there is the perception battle. “Stalin, as chief minister, will be tested by the motivated campaign of the past decades that the DMK cadre, returning to power after 10 long years, will be a law unto themselves at every level. He has to alter that perception; it will not be easy given that it is part of a well-orchestrated campaign against the Karunanidhis that he has inherited,” explains Moorthy. The DMK is also often accused of promoting dynasty. Given Stalin’s administrative preoccupations, son Udhayanidhi, now an MLA, and half-sister M. Kanimozhi, an MP, would possibly take on more party work, while son-in-law V. Sabareesan continues as the backroom man. Many analysts feel Stalin will keep the extended Karunanidhi clan at arm’s length

while letting in the immediate family. They sense that he is now more conciliatory towards Kanimozhi and will reward her for her loyalty at an appropriate time.

HARD-WON VICTORY

In the first assembly poll under the new-generation leaderships, Stalin’s DMK notched up a decisive win. This is the first time in 25 years that the party has secured a majority on its own even though it left 61 seats to its allies (compared to 68 offered by the AIADMK). Although the incumbent AIADMK teamed up with the BJP and both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah made several campaign forays, the effort did not cut much ice. EPS ensured that the AIADMK held on to its traditional ground—the Kongu belt in the western part of the state—but the party lost out elsewhere. The pro-AIADMK sentiment did not resonate in the south, which was said to be the bastion of former deputy CM O. Panneerselvam (OPS). Stalin was helped by a strong show in the central and northern regions of the state.

AIADMK ally PMK (Pattali Makkal Katchi) will be the most disappointed by the results. It had fought for 10.5 per cent reservation in the Most Backward Class quota for its Vanniyar cohorts but it failed to yield the desired results in the polls. “It created a strong sentiment in the Vanniyar belt, but also gave rise to a strong counter-response,” says Ramu Manivannan, head of the department of politics and public administration at the University of Madras. “The latter turned out to be more effective.” Indeed, the campaign against the separate quota led to consolidation of other disadvantaged groups against the AIADMK. The anti-caste consolidation coupled with anti-incumbency and the alliance arithmetic tilted the balance in the DMK’s favour.

Stalin has maintained the Dravidian anti-Centre stand, which at its core seeks greater regional autonomy, linguistic identity and a furthering of the federal spirit. “Tamil Nadu has announced the victory of the DMK...the state will win hereafter,” he declared in a statement soon after the party’s win. As his term rolls on, he will also have to work on the DMK’s future. Taking a tough anti-central government stand is expected to bring the party fresh dividends.

Stalin has also evolved steadily. He has years of experience, both in politics and political administration, with stints as Chennai mayor (1996), minister for local administration (2006) and deputy chief minister (2009-11). He has also quietly built contacts with national parties and successive governments at the Centre, including the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance. “He is unlike Karunanidhi in his style of administration. He is more sober, cautious and an able administrator. He also believes in having a clean image,” says Manivannan. “He will deliver by setting targets and tracking the progress of the work.”

TIME TO REGROUP

The rival AIADMK, for its part, will now be keeping a close watch—unlike the days when both Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa deftly avoided being present inside the legislature at the same time. The party has to come to terms with changing realities, promote EPS more as he has proved to be their more acceptable leader, but only after accommodating OPS, who as party coordinator has the capacity and record of engineering a split, when expedient. Two AIADMK Rajya Sabha members, R. Vaithiyalingam and K.P. Munusamy, who won their assembly seats, will have to resign one of their posts. The role that the BJP wants to play in AIADMK affairs and the cadre’s disgruntlement with the saffron party will be other issues. In the meantime, the BJP or even others, may try for a patch-up with expelled AIADMK matron V.K. Sasikala and her nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran, citing vote shares, which may not be too big but will help in consolidation. Though Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) did not win a single seat, it played spoilsport for the AIADMK and its allies in at least 21 constituencies, polling more votes than the margin of victory of the DMK/ allies.

“The BJP factor has hugely contributed to the defeat of the AIADMK. Now, the AIADMK’s short-term goal will be to keep the legislature party active and together while the long-term one would include a preparation for larger unity moves among the factions including that of Sasikala and Dhinakaran,” says Manivannan. Of the other losers, both the BJP and the Tamil nationalist Naam Tamizhar Katchi of Seeman, the only party to contest all 234 seats (and which has bettered its vote share), will look for opportunities to expand as an alternative. But, for now, state politics remains primarily a game of the two Dravidian majors. ■