NOW HIS OWN BOSS
The Left’s second consecutive win in Kerala underlines Pinarayi Vijayan’s deft handling of the many crises that hit the state as much as his control over the political narrative
The exit polls had predicted a return of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) to power in Kerala, but even hardcore supporters did not anticipate such a decisive verdict. Kerala not only voted Pinarayi Vijayan, 75, back to power, breaking a four-decade-old trend of alternate front governments— the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M)led LDF or the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF)—but also gave the ruling coalition 99 of 140 seats, eight more than its tally in 2016.
Pinarayi’s victory, which trumped anti-incumbency, high-profile cases of alleged corruption, including the gold smuggling scam, the government’s handling of women’s entry in the Sabarimala temple issue and daily rising cases of Covid, the third highest in the country, underlines his position as the undisputed mass leader within the CPI(M). It also places him as a key figure, along with Mamata Banerjee and M.K. Stalin, in a possible opposition coalition
that could challenge the BJP in the general election in 2024. In the process, the opposition UDF was reduced to 41 seats, with the Congress winning only 21 of those. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, was in an even more pitiable state, failing to even keep its first ever seat in the state, Nemom, which it had won in 2016. “In 2016, the BJP opened its account with a seat in Nemom,” Pinarayi had told the media days before the elections. “We will close that account this time.” And when he actually did it, he also took the CPI(M) to a commanding tally of 67 seats in the LDF alliance.
The win wasn’t a fluke, Pinarayi had analysed threadbare the strengths and weaknesses of his political opponents. He designed strategies and made alliances to widen the LDF’s mass base in Kerala (see Why the LDF Won). His handling of the devastating floods in consecutive years (2018 and ’19), the Nipah virus outbreak and then Covid-19, has been widely appreciated. In the course of these crises, he also metamorphosed from a seemingly arrogant leader to someone who people could turn to in distress. His daily addresses on primetime TV throughout the pandemic created much viewer interest, boosting his image among voters.
“The LDF’s victory in the assembly poll is unparalleled,” says a former chief secretary who has served with LDF governments in the past. “Pinarayi must get full credit for designing some winning strategies.” Ever since he came to power in 2016, Pinarayi had been keen on a second term, says the former bureaucrat. The chief minister consulted hundreds of experts to design his governance strategies. “He wanted to transform Kerala, set new benchmarks in quality living standards. His initiatives paid rich dividends for the state and for the CPI(M),” says the former bureaucrat.
Certainly, Pinarayi made a mark in good governance, built good roads, invested in transforming government schools and vastly improved public healthcare, a move that helped the state tide over the pandemic smoothly and is still saving many lives (Kerala has the lowest fatality rate in the country). But it wasn’t just his good governance practices that saved the LDF in the poll. Pinarayi’s political acumen also helped. For example: broadening the LDF’s reach by including the Kerala Congress (Mani) and Loktantrik Janata Dal which gave it more heft in central and north Kerala. The chief minister, however, preferred to play down all the deft strategising the LDF had done as it faced traditional rivals UDF and a rising BJP threat (the latter had a 15 per cent share of the vote in 2016). “We put our trust in the people of Kerala and the people returned it wholeheartedly,” Pinarayi told the media on May 2 at Dharmadom in Kannur district after retaining his home constituency by over 51,000 votes. The LDF’s strategies paid off. It increased its vote share to 45.2 per cent this election, while the UDF saw its vote rise marginally to 39.4 per cent. The BJP-led NDA, meanwhile, saw its vote share fall to 12.4 per cent.
THE AFTERMATH
The striking mandate in the assembly election will help the CPI(M) consolidate the party’s political base in the state and lay the foundation for a longer innings in power. With his voice growing stronger within the party, Pinarayi is free to pick the team of his choice. In 2016, he had to accommodate senior party leaders and political stalwarts like Dr Thomas Isaac, G. Sudhakaran, T.P. Ramakrishanan, M.M. Mani, A.K. Balan and E.P. Jayarajan in the cabinet. But this time around, his team will be a strange mix of former ministers like K.K. Shailaja, K. Radhakrishnan and A.C. Moideen, as well as novices like K.N. Balagopal, party central committee member M.V. Govindan and former member of Parliament M.B. Rajesh.
Sources say Pinarayi has a clear idea about the priorities in the second innings and will be focusing on the completion of another 300,000 houses for the poor under the government’s Life Mission project, as well as other pending mega projects such as the acquisition of land for widening the national highway as well as the hill and coastal highways. “We went to the polls with great confidence for we had fulfilled our promises to the people,” says CPI(M) acting state secretary and LDF convenor A. Vijayaraghavan. “Our greatest joy is that the people of Kerala disinfected the state of many political viruses...giving a befitting reply to the BJP’s communal agenda.”
RIVALS IN THE LURCH
For the Congress, it’s time for a leadership change. The party couldn’t cash in on the various corruption charges against the LDF government that dominated the news for much of 2020, nor could it whip up any anti-incumbent sentiment.
Crisis management: In his first term, Vijayan weathered the Ockhi cyclonic storm in 2017, two floods in 2018 and 2019, the Nipah outbreak in 2018 and Covid-19 in 2020. Distributed free monthly food kits to 8.8 million ration card-holders in the state and free food to poor families who were under quarantine
Good governance practices: Raised social security pension to Rs 1,600 monthly for 5.4 million poor people. Made huge investments in strengthening the health and education sectors
Life Mission Project: Providing free housing for the poor and flood-affected; 240,000 families have benefitted from the project so far
Broadening the LDF base: Pinarayi got UDF allies like the Kerala Congress (Mani) and Loktantrik Janata Dal to join the LDF. This insulated the LDF with an additional 5% vote share and helped it gain strength in Congress strongholds in north and central Kerala
Thinking ahead: Pinarayi’s survival instincts peak when he is hounded by rivals. He has shown it in the past while crushing factional feuds in the Kerala CPI(M), and surviving the Lavalin scam. After the gold smuggling racket was busted in July and later his principal secretary M. Sivasankar was arrested, Pinarayi was in distress. But he defused the situation and ensured the accusations did not hurt his prospects in the election