WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY

“THE SECOND WAVE MIGHT PEAK MID-MAY AT 500,000600,000 CASES DAILY. BUT ANY MODEL IS ONLY AS GOOD AS THE DATA YOU GET”

“THE WAVE WILL NOT BALLOON DOWN AS FAST AS IT TOOK OFF. WE HAVE TO BE WATCHFUL OF THE NEW VARIANTS”

“WE MUST FOCUS AGGRESSIVELY ON VACCINATING THE +44 YEARS AGE GROUP WHERE MORTALITY IS THE HIGHEST”

GAUTAM MENON Professor of Physics and Biology, Ashoka University

“IT MIGHT PEAK AT 800,000 TO 1 MILLION CASES DAILY IN MID-MAY AND AROUND 4,500 DEATHS DAILY BY END-MAY”

“BECAUSE OF BOTTLENECKS IN TESTING IN INDIA, THERE ARE A HIGH NUMBER OF UNDETECTED INFECTIONS, AND THE FIGURE REMAINS NEBULOUS”

“YOU HAVE TO SOLVE THE VIRUS PROBLEM TO REVIVE THE ECONOMY. WE NEED A CLEAR-CUT STRATEGY”

BHRAMAR MUKHERJEE Professor of Epidemiology, University of Michigan

“THE WAVE MIGHT PEAK BETWEEN MAY 8 AND 15 AND AT AN AVERAGE OF 400,000 CASES DAILY”

“THE DECLINE WOULD NOT BE LIKE A CLIFF, RATHER CASES WOULD DROP BENIGNLY AND TAKE A MONTH AND A HALF TO STABILISE”

“WE NEED TO ENSURE THAT SUBSEQUENT WAVES DO NOT BECOME A FULL-BLOWN NATIONAL CATASTROPHE”

M. VIDYASAGAR Distinguished Professor, IIT-Hyderabad and Sutra Group

“IT’S HARD TO THINK OF AN INDIAN PEAK BECAUSE WE ARE SEEING MULTIPLE PEAKS—IN MUMBAI, DELHI AND NOW IN THE SOUTH”

“WE HAVE PUT OURSELVES IN A POSITION WHERE WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO HAVE LOCKDOWNS”

“BUILD SURGE CAPACITY IN HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE THAT ACTS AS AN INSURANCE POLICY AGAINST FUTURE WAVES” GAGANDEEP KANG

Professor of Microbiology, CMC, Vellore

“THE CAT AND MOUSE GAME BETWEEN HUMANS AND THE VIRUS WILL CONTINUE—AFTER ACQUIRING A MUTATION TO EVADE IMMUNITY, IT WILL STRIKE AGAIN”

“THE SAVING GRACE IN RURAL AREAS IS THE LOW POPULATION DENSITY, BUT HEALTHCARE IN THE VILLAGES IS POOR”

“GENOMIC SURVEILLANCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALL THE TIME SO THAT WE CAN SPOT MUTATIONS OF CONCERN EARLY”

SHAHID JAMEEL Director, Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University

“BOTH INFECTED CASES AND DEATHS ARE BEING UNDERCOUNTED. THE REAL FIGURES COULD BE 3 TO 7 TIMES MORE”

“STRONGER CONTAINMENT MEASURES AND EXPANDING VACCINATIONS ALONE CAN ENSURE WE HAVE NO MORE MAJOR WAVES LIKE THIS”

“THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MODI GOVT TO [MAKE] A TURNAROUND BY INVITING FOREIGN FIRMS TO MAKE VACCINES IN INDIA”

GIRIDHAR BABU Head, Life-course Epidemiology, Public Health Foundation of India