A GRAIN OF OPPORTUNITY
You perhaps wouldn’t expect the war in Ukraine to have an effect in Ujjain. But as March rolled out, Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan dialled in Prime Minister Narendra Modi, requesting help in setting up export lines for wheat from his state. The PM brought in commerce minister Piyush Goyal, and the confabulations soon enveloped exporters, the MEA and railways and shipping officials, all very intense and brimming with purpose.
And why not? There is at long last an opening in the global wheat market due to the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, both big wheat-exporting nations. India, the world’s no. 2 wheat producer but a laggard in exports, had every right to grab that proverbial skillet to cook some rotis of its own. By extension, so did MP, with its highquality wheat. Diverting to exports makes sense for India: farmers will get better prices and public procurement can ease off, clearing perennially overflowing stocks. Encouragingly, private traders have moved into procurement, eyeing the export market. Since midMarch, when early harvest varieties from western MP started arriving at mandis, they have been fetching more than the MSP of Rs 2,015 per quintal. Logistics does present a challenge, as do global quality norms, but it’s too good a chance to pass up on: 40-100 per
cent of local consumption in Egypt, Nigeria, Thailand, Vietnam, Tanzania, Sudan and Turkey has hitherto been met by Russian and Ukrainian wheat. As is 20-100 per cent consumption in 25 African nations. And Indian wheat is absent nearly everywhere.
That can change. India expects a production of around 111 million metric tonnes (mmt) in marketing season 2022-23. In 2021-22, exports were a mere 7.85 mmt, around 7 per cent of production—and even that was an improvement on the past.
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are major importers: nearly half their requirement is met with Indian wheat. Other importers include Yemen, Korea, the Philippines, Nepal, Indonesia and some West Asian countries. Everywhere, India finds itself up against RussiaUkraine. But Russia faces sanctions and the wheat belt in Ukraine’s south and east remains largely unsown. “Global shortages have created an opportunity for India. We are targeting doubling our exports to 12-15 mmt in FY23,” says Dr M. Angamuthu, chairman, Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). A key reason for India’s tepid exports has always been quality. “Price wise, Indian wheat is competitive but, yes, there are issues with sanitary and phytosanitary norms. These are being addressed by the agriculture ministry,” adds Dr Angamuthu. “Already, a team from Egypt is visiting source states like MP, Rajasthan and Gujarat to see things for themselves.” Variety too is a factor. “In Africa, Europe and West Asia, the demand is for ‘hard’ wheat, or the Duram varieties, used for making pastas and breads. Indian wheat is more on the softer side.”
This is where MP, renowned for its quality wheat, eyes a chance. Its Sharbati, Lokwan and Annapurna varieties are considered good table options—rotis made using the flour of these varieties are whiter, fluffier and stay soft even when not warm. MP also grows varieties of Durum, Malwa Shakti being the most popular. So, the excitement is high. “This is perhaps the first time in 15 years that wheat is being bought at levels higher than the MSP,” says Naim Ur Rahim Khan, a farmer at Umraoganj village, Raisen district. The Annapurna and Lokwan varieties are selling at Rs 2,100-2,300 per quintal while the Sharbati is fetching a jaw-dropping Rs 3,000. “We are working to popularise our premium varieties through our foreign missions. Once they are introduced in those markets, it would help establish us as a brand, war or no war,” says Ajit Kesri, MP’s additional chief secretary, agriculture.
India also needs to move fast on aspects that have traditionally held its wheat back from world markets. Ironing out norms relating to pests and diseases is one. Getting the paperwork in order for exporters is another. States like Punjab and Haryana have been asked to reduce taxes and reimburse state taxes to exporters. MP has scaled down licence fees from Rs 20,000 to Rs 1,000 and the security deposit of Rs 3 lakh has been waived. Land for setting up temporary export-based sorting and grading units, too, is being cleared.
The licence fee and certification mess holds a clue to the hesitancy that characterised India’s attitudes to exports. As a country with a bruising historical experience of famine and starvation deaths, the tendency has always been to shore up domestic supply. Even this time, despite years of surplus, there are concerns that an export market that ticks too much may hit our buffer stocks. But it’s estimated that nearly 20 mmt would be available in the central pool for this season, leaving enough for India to finally stake out its own piece of the global cake. ■
HOSTILITIES BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE HAVE CREATED AN OPENING FOR INDIAN WHEAT EXPORTS