HOW NITISH HAS GAINED THE UPPER HAND IN BIHAR

➘ His decision to enumerate castes in the state has the BJP scurrying behind Nitish, as the exercise is likely to stir the social pot and consolidate caste groups, which may overpower religious polarisation or hypernationalism in the election

➘ The emergence of Tejashwi Yadav, already a significant challenger in the 2020 assembly poll and getting stronger, makes it necessary for the BJP to be with a formidable ally like Nitish rather than go it alone

➘ The JD(U)-RJD collaboration on a caste census for Bihar has opened the possibility for an alternative alliance should the BJP step on his toes. Hence the saffron party’s wooing of Nitish

➘ Nitish’s denial of a Rajya Sabha nomination to R.C.P. Singh has put paid to any attempt to create a parallel power centre in the JD(U)

➘ With the LJP a divided house and Chirag and Pashupati Paras going in opposite directions, the BJP cannot take the Paswan voters for granted in 2024 as they could in 2019

➘ Though the BJP has gained in strength in the Bihar assembly by poaching the three MLAs of Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party, its miserable loss in the Bochaha assembly bypoll in April came as a rude shock