METHODOLOGY

The India Today Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted by CVoter, a globally renowned name in the field of socio-economic research, between July 15, 2022, and July 31, 2022, interviewing 22,861 respondents covering all Lok Sabha segments across all states. In addition to these samples, an additional 96,676 interviews from CVoter’s regular tracker data between February 2022 and July 2022 were also analysed for the long-term trendline in projected calculations of votes and seats. With the fast-changing situation in Bihar, a dynamic Snap Poll of 2,479 respondents was carried out on August 9 to assess the impact of the new ground equations on the national numbers. Thus, the opinion of 122,016 respondents was considered for this MOTN report. The margin of error is +/- 3 per cent at the macro level and +/- 5 per cent at microlevel reporting, with 95 per cent confidence level.

From May 2009 onwards, the CVoter Tracker has been carried out each week, 52 waves in a calendar year, in 11 national languages, across all states and UTs in India, with a target sample size of 30,000 samples each quarter. The average response rate is 55 per cent. Starting January 1, 2019, CVoter has been carrying the tracker on a daily basis, using the rollover sample of seven days for tracker analysis.

All these polls are based on a random probability sample as used in the globally standardised methodology, carried out by trained researchers across all geographic and demographic segments. This survey is based on CATI interviews of adult respondents across all segments. Standard RDD is used to draw random numbers covering all frequency series allocated to all operators across all telecom circles in India. CVoter ensures proper representative analysis by statistical weighing of the data to make it representative of the local population as per the latest census figures. The data is weighted to known census profiles, including gender, age, education, income, religion, caste, urban/ rural and vote recalls for the last Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. For the analytics, CVoter uses its proprietary algorithm to calculate the provincial and regional vote share based on the split-voter phenomenon.

CVoter follows the code of professional ethics and practices drafted by the World Association of Public Opinion Research and the official guidelines on opinion polling as instructed by Press Council of India.