BJP AND THE STATE POLLS IN 2022-’23
JAMMU & KASHMIR ADVANTAGES
Hindu vote consolidation in Jammu Post-delimitation, BJP-led alliance may make headway in Kashmir Ghulam Nabi Azad’s exit has weakened Congress; his new outfit may split opposition vote
CHALLENGES
If Gupkar Alliance contests polls as a unit, it will consolidate opposition vote Anger among Kashmiri Muslims over abrogation of Art. 370
HIMACHAL PRADESH ADVANTAGES
Relatively clean government PM Modi’s appeal Hindutva has acceptance
CHALLENGES
Congress regrouping under Pratibha Singh BJP regime faces antiincumbency Factionalism in the BJP
RAJASTHAN ADVANTAGES
Pro-Hindutva sentiment ● PM Modi’s appeal Antiincumbency ● ● against CM Ashok Gehlot and Congress BJP’s ● tribal outreach, strong state organisation
CHALLENGES
●Indecision on ex-CM Vasundhara Raje’s leadership
State unit riven by ● factionalism Lack of an ● alternative to Vasundhara
GUJARAT ADVANTAGES
Brand Modi Patels back with the BJP Party’s outreach to Dalits, tribals New CM and cabinet have helped curb anti-incumbency
CHALLENGES
●Residual anti-incumbency after being in power for three decades
●Young voters tired of party, may want change KHAM (Kshatriya Adivasi, Harijan, Muslims) vote may back Congress
KARNATAKA ADVANTAGES
Strong on-ground ● organisational structure
Internal bickerings in ● Congress Pro-Hindutva ● sentiment Vokkaliga ● support base
CHALLENGES
Deep inner party ● factionalism Corruption ● allegations, antiincumbency Unhappy ● B.S. Yediyurappa family
Lingayat seers looking ● at options beyond BJP
MADHYA PRADESH ADVANTAGES
Hindutva
PM Modi’s appeal BJP’s hold over the major OBC blocs
CHALLENGES
Factionalism in BJP Too many Congress turncoats have been accommodated
Weak government, corruption scandals
CHHATTISGARH ADVANTAGES
Outreach to tribal ● community Anti-incumbency, ● corruption allegations against Congress regime
CHALLENGES
Indecision on exCM ● Raman Singh’s leadership and no clear alternative
Party’s inability to ● aggressively challenge the state government
TELANGANA ADVANTAGES
PM Modi’s appeal ● Outreach among ● OBCs Hyper-Hindutva ● narrative is working in urban centres
CHALLENGES
Absence of a tested ● organisational structure
Hindutva appeal limited ● to urban centres
Opposition parties like ● Congress, TDP still big in rural parts of state
MEGHALAYA ADVANTAGES
PM Modi’s pro-Northeast image Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma’s considerable hold in the state Congress meltdown
CHALLENGES
Uneasy ties with ally and CM Conrad Sangma and his National People’s Party
TMC aggressively seeking space in state Inability to connect with Christian population
NAGALAND ADVANTAGES
Relative peace in state Fewer areas under draconian AFSPA rule Development projects from Centre
CHALLENGES
Sub-nationalism sentiments Rebellious CM Neiphiu Rio of the NDPP doesn’t want to play ball with the party BJP still a minor player
MIZORAM ADVANTAGES
PM Modi’s pro-development approach BJP won 12 of the 25 seats in Mara Autonomous District Council (MADC) polls
CHALLENGES
Ally Zoramthanga of the Mizo National Front not keen on a poll tie-up Majority Christian population still wary of BJP
TRIPURA ADVANTAGES
Cross-country connectivity ● through Bangladesh Development projects ● executed Anti-Left ● sentiment
CHALLENGES
Factionalism in state unit ● TMC building up base in ● state New CM Manik Saha ● has little time to fight antiincumbency