ZEROING IN ON LS SEATS
The BJP has identified 144 Lok Sabha constituencies where it lost/ barely won in 2019 for special attention. The party deployed 25 Union ministers in these constituencies to do a SWOT analysis in the first phase, the next pravas starts in October. The maj
BIHAR
LS seats: 40 BJP*: 17 Focus seats: 16
STRATEGY
● Deploy ex-deputy CM Sushil Modi back in state to attack Nitish Kumar
● Corner RJD on corruption-related issues
● Rework alliance with Chirag Paswan faction of LJP, Mukesh Sahani’s VIP
CHALLENGES
● OBC survey data may come in Feb. ’23, could disrupt caste equations
● If Muslim votes link up with OBC castes, it will hit BJP chances
PUNJAB
LS seats: 13 BJP: 2 Focus seats: 9
STRATEGY
● Build up party in rural belt ● Poach leaders from Congress, Akali Dal, integrate them into party framework ● Build bridges with Sikh organisations
CHALLENGES
● Residual anger from farm law protests ● BJP isn’t seen as an alternative; ex-ally Akali Dal in meltdown ● Rise of fringe elements in rural Punjab
MAHARASHTRA
LS Seats: 48 BJP: 23 Focus seats: 18
STRATEGY
● Build BJP up as lone custodian of Hindutva politics
● Establish Eknath Shinde’s rival Shiv Sena group as the real deal ● Restart pro-business projects
CHALLENGES
● An aggressive BJP may unite MVA allies ● Shinde faction of Shiv Sena still untested electorally
● Only two years of tenure left to turn around party’s fortunes
KERALA
LS Seats: 20 BJP: 0 Focus seats: 5
STRATEGY
● Working with Christian groups who have split with Congress
● Infuse new leadership in the state, especially in youth organisations
CHALLENGES
● RSS has deep network in the state, but unable to transfer votes to the BJP
● Party leaders, cadre not strong enough on the ground
WEST BENGAL
LS seats: 42 BJP: 17 Focus seats: 15
STRATEGY
● Position BJP as only opposition to Mamata’s TMC
● Take Hindutva, nationalism to rural areas ● Intensify bhadralok outreach in urban centres
CHALLENGES
Exodus of turncoats may gain momentum
Breakdown in organisational structure in various parts
Factionalism in state unit
UP
LS Seats: 80 BJP: 64 Focus seats: 20
STRATEGY
Outreach to Jatav, Yadav communities (support base of BSP, SP respectively) and Jats
Saturation coverage of centralsponsored schemes Build a ‘controlled’ Hindutva narrative
CHALLENGES
No outreach plans for Muslims
Anti-incumbency against second term party MPs