VOTES THAT COUNT
The communities that have the numbers to swing the polls
➘ PATIDARS: They make up 18-19 per cent of the vote, and have influence in 40 seats. Largely a farming community, the Patidars also have a presence among the urban middle class and powerful non-resident Gujaratis. They do not vote as a bloc, though. The BJP suffered due to the 2017 Patidar agitation but now has the face of the strike, Hardik Patel, in their ranks. CM Bhupendrabhai Patel is also a Patidar. AAP state convenor Gopal Italia was an active participant in the 2017 agitation
➘ OBC: Comprising over 140 communities, OBCs make up 52 per cent of Gujarat’s population. Koli and Thakor are the two dominant communities that influence seats in Saurashtra and north Gujarat respectively. Congress president Jagdish Thakor and AAP general secretary Isudan Gadhvi are OBCs. BJP faces discontent among a section of the OBCs as two of their leaders—Congress turncoats Kunwarji Bawaliya and Jawahar Chavda—who had been made ministers were dropped from the new cabinet last year
➘ DALITS: They make up about 8 per cent of the population; 13 seats are reserved for the SCs and they can affect the result in another 12-15 seats. The Congress is banking on Jignesh Mevani to bring in their votes after losing its Dalit strongman, Pravin Maru, to the BJP in 2020. AAP is appealing to Dalit voters by invoking Ambedkar
➘ MUSLIMS: Some 9-10 per cent of the population, Muslim votes can influence 35-38 seats but have so far been divided between the Congress and Independent candidates. This year, an upset is likely owing to the BJP outreach to Pasmanda Muslims. AIMIM is a strong contender to win the two Muslim-dominated seats held now by the Congress. In the other seats, it may eat into Congress votes. AAP is making no overt effort to woo the Muslims
➘ TRIBALS: Twenty-seven seats are reserved for STs, who account for 15 per cent of the state’s population. While tribal president Droupadi Murmu will be one of the BJP’s trump cards to get their votes, the party is on the back foot over the tribal agitation against the Par Tapi Narmada Link project. This is why two of the BJP’s five Gaurav Yatra routes were dedicated to tribal-dominated seats. The two MLAstrong Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), led by Chhotu Vasava, ended a short tie-up with AAP recently and is most likely to reconcile with the Congress