FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
India today’s biannual Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey has completed 23 years and has emerged as a credible tracker of public opinion and government performance. Over the years, many of its findings have been uncomfortable to ruling dispensations, but the magazine believes such opinion surveys provide a mirror to social beliefs and aspirations, as also valuable insights into broad national trends. MOTN has faithfully reflected the flux of India’s polity, with all the rapid mutations that mark it. But over the past decade, one fact has stood invariable like a pole star: the persona of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the enormous public cachet it carries. Modi has emerged as a unique helmsman figure of 21st-century India, seemingly untouched by storm, undimmed by time and immune to competition. Despite serious economic issues confronting an India still to recover entirely from the Covid-19 pandemic, the latest edition of MOTN, conducted in January 2023, shows that Modi remains the man of the moment and the times. He not only stays resilient in personal popularity but has even increased his ratings steadily since August 2021. In the aftermath of the devastating Covid-19 second wave, he had registered 54 per cent, his lowest in the past six years. From that relative nadir, he has ballooned by 18 percentage points to reach 72 per cent this time. Perhaps as interesting—and good news for the BJP—is the fact that the Modi effect has finally rubbed off favourably on the NDA government’s perceived performance when, in the past, it had lagged behind considerably. Thus, those ‘Very Satisfied/Satisfied’ with the Modi government have also swelled from 53 per cent in August 2021 to 67 per cent now—the last six-month stretch itself seeing an appreciable 11 percentage point jump from 56 per cent. A nine-year span is when you would expect image fatigue and anti-incumbency to have settled in like a choking fog, as it did during the tenure of Dr Manmohan Singh in UPA-II. But Modi and his government show no signs of such a meltdown, with less than 18 months—or “400 days”, in the PM’s own words—left for the 2024 general election. The latest MOTN results show that a third term for the NDA is within its grasp. Were the general election to be held today, the ruling alliance would get 298 seats. Most importantly, the BJP stays at 284 seats, enough for a simple majority on its own. The worry for the BJP, despite the glow around Modi/NDA, is that the seat numbers have in fact declined in absolute terms. There is a perceptible drop from the 352 the NDA won in the 2019 general election. And the BJP numbers have dropped from the 303 seats it won on its own in 2019. One reason is the political vicissitudes in Maharashtra and Bihar, where a complex fragmentation of the field makes the 2019 figures hard to achieve for the BJP now. Not surprisingly, besides the 20 per cent who cite Covid-19 handling, it’s Hindutva/hypernationalist showpieces like Article 370 and Ayodhya that take silver and bronze as the Modi regime’s single biggest achievements in the public eye. Those can keep the core zone happy, but perhaps not enlarge the buffer zone. Livelihood issues will matter more for the others. The ultimate test of governance is in how the citizen’s life is touched, and here economic truths are foundational. The Modi regime has not had an easy ride here. Skyrocketing fuel and commodity prices, widening fiscal and trade deficits, falling exports and the rupee at its weakest in history mean that the factors making for a downward gravitational pull still linger. Yet, the MOTN figures show people believe the NDA led by Modi is the best bet to overcome these difficulties. Inflation and unemployment continue to figure as top worries for the public—at 25 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively—but even those have tapered off considerably from the 30-month highs of 33 per cent and 26 per cent seen last August. Overall, if 70 per cent cited the economy as Modi’s biggest failure six months ago, only 55 per cent do so now. This despite the fact that those who say their economic status has deteriorated under Modi has spiked 20 percentage points since 2020, touching 35 per cent now; and those who say their expenses have become difficult to manage remain a high 60 per cent, though dropping by 7 percentage points when compared to January 2022.
What explains the paradox of Modi’s popularity trumping these grim figures? The reason is a perceptible bounce-back in the economy post-Covid, despite the global headwinds and India’s endemic problems. After Omicron and Ukraine darkened the skies a year ago, the past 6-8 months have been a relatively good and sedate phase, with no further shocks upsetting an emerging equilibrium. Also, the raft of welfare measures undertaken by the government, including the free supply of essential rations, has alleviated the suffering poor citizens had to undergo. Secondly, the exemplary handling of Covid, after the initial fumbling, has contributed to the sense of a functioning government and the deft handling of foreign policy has added to that sheen. Overall, critics tend to overlook a process of maturation the Modi regime has undergone in recent years, with a sense of quiet stability replacing the shock and awe and high-octane optics of old. That’s why Modi lords it over the field as the one best suited to be India’s PM—stable at 53 per cent, and 39 per cent more than runner-up Rahul Gandhi’s 14 per cent. As for the Congress, contrary to all the ballyhooing on social media, the Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY) has given it no extra lustre. Only 19 per cent rated its performance as ‘Outstanding’—double of what it returned two years ago, and over 5 percentage points ahead of last January, but a drop from the 24 per cent it got in August 2022, before Rahul Gandhi’s yatra began. The BJY has served to marginally burnish Rahul’s personal profile, but at 13 per cent, he still lags behind Arvind Kejriwal and Mamata Banerjee as the leader of a putative Opposition alliance. Overall, the January 2023 MOTN’s big message is that it’s still Modi all the way and a challenger has to dent this Teflon image to make any headway. That could be tough, with 70 per cent respondents reporting that they feel “happy” today—20 percentage points more than August. There are more fascinating insights on what the nation feels on subjects beyond politics—from judges’ appointments to ‘love jihad’ and the EWS quota, and from Big B ‘doing a Modi’ among film heroes to Deepika Padukone trumping the “Besharam Rang” controversy to stay on top. The survey truly captures the pulse of the nation and some of the findings may well surprise you.