SHINDE VS. UDDHAV: HOW THEY STACK UP

UDDHAV THACKERAY

➘ Shinde unable to induce a split in party organisation ➘ Strong grassroots connect in Mumbai, built around old Marathi manoos base, the Thackeray name and uniquely militant cadres ➘ Can grow beyond old Sena straitjacket with outreach to North Indians, Buddhist Dalits/ Bahujans. Has soft corner among Muslims, Christians who see in him a gentle, cosmopolitan leader willing to crack down on hate crimes ➘ Perception of being a victim of BJP’s vendetta politics ➘ Inaccessible, surrounded by coterie and lacks strong secondrung leadership after the Shinde camp’s desertion, due to reluctance to groom and trust leaders with mass base ➘ Withering away of fear factor under Uddhav’s whitecollar leadership; fencesitters could now switch to Shinde side ➘ Inability to inspire personal or mass loyalty like father Bal Thackeray ➘ Inherent contradictions of an old Hindutva party in alliance with “secular” parties like Congress, NCP, especially in sensitive regions like Marathwada

EKNATH SHINDE

➘ The appeal of an accessible, affable, downtoearth mass leader risen from the ranks, with a statewide network, not restricted to his base Thane or Mumbai ➘ Besides the Shiv Sena name and symbol, has a bulk of the original Shiv Sena legislative party ➘ The BJP’s support ➘ Mumbai’s changing demography, with traditional workingclass Maharashtrian areas being gentrified, may work in favour of a proHindutva BJPSena alliance ➘ Seen more as a loose, fractious federation of MLAs yoked together by opportunism and coercion than as a political party per se; no organisational depth ➘ Lack of strategic acumen as administrator; overshadowed by deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis ➘ Growing tensions with BJP. Contradictions in alliance: Sena’s workingclass Marathi base and nativist politics vs. BJP’s mercantile, Gujarati leadership that may prey on Shinde camp to retain Hindutva monopoly ➘ Perception that there can be no Sena without Thackerays