EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
In American politics, most of its 50 states are committed to one or the other of the two major parties, but there are usually about five states where both of them have almost similar levels of popular support and, hence, who wins there determines the overall result of a presidential election. These states are called the ‘swing’ states. In India, a decade ago, such battles used to be fought primarily between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. But in 2019, as in 2014, the BJP won that war decisively. Of the 190 seats where they were in a straight fight, the BJP secured 175 or 92 per cent. It follows logically that, in 2024, the mantle of challenging the BJP has fallen on regional satraps in three major states: Maharashtra, West Bengal and Bihar. The contest in all three is gritty, attritional and fluid. Each in its unique way. With 130 constituencies between them, these swing states loom as the decisive frontier in a do-or-die war for political supremacy. These powerful state leaders face an existential threat and will endeavour with all their might to halt the BJP’s relentless march towards a third consecutive majority at the Centre.
Although Uttar Pradesh has the maximum number of seats (80), it is a political continent that has come under the iron grip of the BJP. These three states are next in sheer size for seats. Maharashtra has a sprawling map of 48 constituencies, this time allotted to five phases of polling. West Bengal boasts a seemingly outsized cache of 42 seats, and Bihar has 40. Both are spread out over all seven phases. The schedule itself is a hint that their politics is more open-ended and capable of hosting a challenge to the BJP. Clearly, they were not places where the ruling party wanted to be rushed. Especially after its dramatic political experiments with newfound alliances.
In Maharashtra, the BJP went about ruthlessly dismantling the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the formidable Shiv Sena-led alliance that had ruled the state after the 2019 assembly election. In June 2022, it toppled the MVA regime by inducing the theatrical rebellion of Eknath Shinde and his merry band of 39 Sena MLAs. For the BJP, the project had a clear objective: the Opposition could not be allowed to be in control of a crucial state leading up to polling. A year later, the BJP sought to inscribe its total dominance over the landscape. This time, another part of the MVA, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), was broken and Ajit Pawar brought over as deputy CM. Two of the state’s big anti-BJP parties lay sundered and bleeding. With the two breakaway groups under its wing, it was time for the BJP to make a play for what it had long desired: to emerge as Maharashtra’s main political party.
To attain its national target, it’s imperative for the BJP to protect the NDA’s 2019 tally of 41 seats while trying to expand its own turf in Maharashtra. Last time, the BJP boasted the best strike rate, winning 23 of the 25 seats it contested. This time, among the Mahayuti allies, it has taken the lion’s share of 28 seats. Besides maximising those, carrying along its weaker partners is equally urgent. For the MVA, borne along by a sympathy wave, it’s more than just an electoral aim to head o the BJP. For the Maratha chieftains Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, it’s nothing short of a battle for political survival. Formally stripped of their party names and symbols, they are treating the popular vote as the real test to determine the ‘original’ Sena and NCP. Shinde, the present chief minister, is no less desperate. Also, for the BJP, any drop in numbers imperils its chances of a comfortable majority in New Delhi. The stakes are big all around.
The high-octane battle for Bengal is equally tense. The irrepressible Mamata Banerjee never much betrays any weariness after nearly 13 years as CM, but she’s fighting to save her only source of political capital. Corruption charges are a perennial albatross. And allegations of running a borderline lawless realm, with power outsourced to a franchisee network of local godfathers, resonate when infamous instances like Birbhum’s alleged cattle-smuggling racket or Sandeshkhali’s alleged sexual abuse cases hit the public eye. In this landscape of turmoil, the BJP had pitchforked itself from two out of 42 seats in 2014 to a commendable high of 18 seats five years later. Retaining those is a necessity, and the BJP has thrown everything at it, including the Citizenship Amendment Act to woo the 3 million-strong Matua community. But Mamata is leveraging precisely that law to work the 27 per cent Muslim electorate into a state of heightened threat perception and get a good counter-polarisation going. Portraying the BJP as a set of divisive, “anti-Bengali” outsiders is her game, although a nativist plank may not swing national voting like it does a state poll. Confounding matters is a strange fragmentation of the INDIA bloc. The Left-Congress is fighting Mamata, but a happy unintended consequence for her would be the anti-incumbency vote getting split.
The questions of survival Bihar poses are no less acute. It’s not just that the NDA had pocketed 39 out of 40 seats in 2019 and simply cannot aord to be thinned out. There’s also the curious figure of Nitish Kumar, the scriptwriter of INDIA who ran away from his own story. This January, he terminated the powerful alliance between his Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led by Tejashwi Yadav that had ruled the state since August 2022 and joined hands with the BJP again. He may have helped the BJP regain its dominance in the state, but the Bihar CM seems to have diminished himself in the act. Pollsters say his meltdown, in turn, leaves a vulnerable flank open for the NDA because, as part of the hard bargain, the JD(U) was allotted 16 seats to the BJP’s 17. Even if the BJP holds its own, saving Nitish’s seats against a rampaging Tejashwi will be an ask. The flip side is that national voting may again favour a national party rather than a satrap like Tejashwi, whose horizon of ambition is still largely provincial.
Think of these three states as places where the aspirations of the regional leaders clash with the BJP’s burning desire to surpass what it achieved in 2019. Our cover story package, put together by our state bureaus, fills you in on all the compelling minutiae. Of course, the answers will be known only on June 4. Ultimately, democracy will be the final judge.