INDEPENDENT ATTACK
The new Nayab Saini regime is in crisis, but the BJP’s immediate concern is the LS vote
On the morning of May 7, political circles in Haryana were abuzz with the news that four independent MLAs had quit the BJP-led alliance, putting the Nayab Singh Saini government in crisis. By evening, three of them— Sombir Sangwan (Dadri), Randhir Gollen (Pundri) and Dharampal Gonder (Nilokheri)—appeared with ex-Congress chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda to announce that they had withdrawn support to the Saini government.
Saini, who took over the reins only in mid-March from Manohar Lal Khattar, is in fire-fighting mode. Before the crisis, the BJP had 41 MLAs and the support of five independents and two members of smaller parties (it had dumped ally Jannayak Janta Party, which had 10 MLAs) in the 90-member house. Now, with the exits and the earlier resignations of Khattar and another independent, Ranjit Chautala—both are fighting the LS election—the government is in a minority. The treasury benches now have 43 members, the Opposition 45. However, in private, BJP leaders say five JJP legislators are with them—even if its party chief Dushyant Chautala announced support to the Congress.
Haryana is in campaign mode and is set to vote for its 10 Lok Sabha seats on May 25. Both the BJP and the Congress are treating the election as a semi-finals before the battle for the state later this year. Though under pressure to prove its majority on the floor of the house, it’s unlikely the BJP will take this path. Party spokesperson Jawahar Yadav
says, “In mid-March, the CM had won the trust vote... another vote is dicult now. If there is a crisis, we’ll prove our majority.” Meanwhile, Saini is contesting the assembly bypoll from Karnal, the seat Khattar vacated.
In the opposite corner, ex-CM Hooda and son Deepender form an axis that has been growing in strength. The Congress declared their 10 candidates last week; eight are from Hooda’s camp. Saini, on the other hand, had inherited the baggage of a decade of anti-incumbency and Jat alienation (all three MLAs who withdrew support are Jats). Haryana’s dominant agrarian community, Jats make up 27 per cent of the population and are a key element in a whole swathe of seats.
THERE IS PRESSURE TO PROVE ITS MAJORITY ON THE FLOOR OF THE HOUSE, BUT THE BJP IN HARYANA IS UNLIKELY TO TAKE THAT PATH
They have for years inhabited a zone of sullen alienation vis-a-vis the BJP. The sense of distance from power began when Khattar, a Khatri, was chosen CM in 2014 despite the overwhelming Jat support for Narendra Modi in the general election. Things never reached an even keel after that. The past decade saw a series of aggravating events: the violent 2016 Jat quota agitation, the farmers’ agitation, the wrestlers’ protests in Delhi that got support from the khaps. The recent tinderbox situation with Punjab’s farm unions has only exacerbated this. Like in Punjab, Jat-led farm unions have banned the entry of BJP leaders in villages dominated by the community. Ground reports suggest the Congress is strong in Sirsa, Hisar, Sonepat and Rohtak, all Jat-dominated seats.
But there is a counter to this too. Saini belongs to a native, agrarian, non-Jat OBC community, the Sainis. There’s a strong strategic continuity here: Saini is backing the caste coalition of non-Jats created by Khattar as a pushback against them. That said, in the 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly polls, 70 per cent of the non-Jats and 50 per cent of the Jats had voted for the BJP. They won all 10 LS seats then and the party will be hoping that on May 25, the Jats will back them once again. ■