No Picture Postcard
Not surprisingly, it has led to the conclusion that had population alone been the criterion as in the rest of India, Kashmir, with its higher population (according to the 2011 census, which the Commission used) would have got more than just one additional seat, and Jammu less than its six additional seats. But even going by the unique parameters, it is not clear why, for instance, Poonch and Rajouri districts, earlier part of the Jammu parliamentary constituency, have been joined with Anantnag parliamentary seat in Kashmir. They are separated not just by language, but a mountain range, and the road connecting them is inaccessible in winter due to snowfall. Indeed, the final report ends up giving credence to fears of gerrymandering along political and communal lines.
Political parties, including the National Conference which was represented in the Commission, had flagged these and other concerns to the panel, chaired by retired Supreme Court justice Ranjana Prakash Desai. By not addressing them, it has done itself a disservice. Its assertion that it has treated Jammu & Kashmir as one unit is unpersuasive. It is no secret that the two have long been polarised along religious lines. And that as the last Assembly elections in 2014 showed, the BJP’s best chance of coming to power is in alliance with a Valley-based regional party, with Jammu’s seats crucial to deciding which partner gets to play the lead role. However, it is also true that the Hindus of Jammu are not a monolithic voting bloc.
Now, Jammu and Kashmir await the next step in restoring the political process. J&K has not had elected representatives since 2018. Governed by unaccountable bureaucrats, police and security forces, the real J&K is a far cry from the picture postcards of tourists at Dal Lake. Targeted killings, a jump in militancy in the first four months of this year over the same period in 2021, with more foreign militants now, have been ringing alarm bells for over a year. With the region simmering since the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan last year, and Pakistan politically unstable, only an elected government in J&K can effectively address the challenges while reaching out to the people.