‘Del­i­cate sit­u­a­tion for in­cum­bents’

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AC­CORD­ING to psephol­o­gist Yo­gen­dra Ya­dav the po­lit­i­cal sit­u­a­tion was in­deed del­i­cate for the in­cum­bents.

“I looked at a sim­i­lar sur­vey done five years ago in Mad­hya Pradesh. In 2013, 53 per cent said Shivraj Singh (Chouhan) should get an­other chance while 20 per cent said

'no'," he re­called. "That

53:20 ra­tio has now be­come 42:40. On the pop­u­lar­ity chart five years ago, Shivraj Chouhan's score was 44 and that of all Con­gress lead­ers put to­gether was only 21.

To­day, he is 44 but

Con­gress lead­ers to­gether are 39. The sit­u­a­tion is very pre­car­i­ous," Ya­dav said. Ya­dav agreed with the find­ings of the PSE sur­vey in Ra­jasthan but said the mar­gins be­tween vic­tory and de­feat could be much big­ger. "Our ex­pe­ri­ence shows that when peo­ple, who say this gov­ern­ment should go in a poll prior to elec­tions are more than those who want to re­tain it, the gov­ern­ment usu­ally goes. If any­one trumps the ex­ist­ing chief min­is­ter in pop­u­lar­ity, chances are they (the in­cum­bents) are go­ing," Ya­dav re­marked.

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