Millennium Post (Kolkata)
Pvt forecaster predicts normal monsoon for 3rd yr in row
NEW DELHI: If the claims of the private weather forecaster are to be believed, this year's Monsoon is likely to be normal or above normal for the third consecutive year. However, the country would have to wait for the official announcement in this regard by the national forecaster India Meteorological Department (IMD).
According to its preliminary forecast for 2021, private forecaster Skymet said that the rainfall from June to September is likely to 103 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 88cm based on average monsoon rain from 1961 to 2010. In 2020 and 2019, the monsoon was above normal at 110 per cent and 109 per cent of LPA respectively.
The Monsoon season, which begins on June 1, is crucial for summer crops and brings about 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall. It is crucial to the country's agriculture, which is one of the mainstays of its economy.
Monsoon rains are a lifeline for about 60 per cent of the country's net cultivated area, which has no irrigation as it impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand and good farm output keep a lid on food inflation.
In its forecast, the private forecaster said that the northern plains, along with a few parts of the northeast region, are likely to be at risk of being rain deficient through the season. Also, interior parts of Karnataka could face scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August.
“The onset month of June and the withdrawal phase of September is assuring good countrywide rainfall distribution,” the forecaster said in its statement.
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.