Millennium Post (Kolkata)
‘BJP’s claim of bagging 100 out of 135 Asembly seats where polling is over, unrealistic’
Situation changed from 2019 and Modi lost his popularity, say experts
KOLKATA: Even as BJP leaders including Narendra Modi and Amit Shah claimed that BJP would get 100 out of 135 seats where elections had been held, political analysts opined that such calculations were ‘unrealistic.’
“BJP’s calculation is based on its best ever performance in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in which the party had bagged 18 seats. Modi, Shah and all other BJP leaders are making calculations based on this figure. Even if we go by the figure, BJP had won 53 out of 135 seats while Trinamool had bagged 82 seats,” said political experts.
Out of nine seats in Purulia, BJP was ahead of Trinamool in 8 seats while Trinamool was ahead of BJP only in Manbazar ( ST) seat. BJP was ahead of TMC in Bandwan ( ST), Balarampur, Baghmundi, Joypur, Purulia, Kashipur, Para (SC) and Raghunathpur ( SC) seat.
In Jhargram, BJP was ahead of TMC in 3 seats while Trinamool was ahead of BJP only in Binpur ( ST) seat. BJP was ahead of TMC in Nayagram (ST), Gopiballavpur and Jhargram.
In Bankura, BJP was ahead of Trinamool in all the 12 seats, namely, Saltora ( SC), Chhatna, Ranibandh ( ST) and Raipur ( ST), Taldangra, Bankura, Barjora, Onda, Bishnupur, Kotulpur ( SC), Indus ( SC) and Sonamukhi ( SC). In West Midnapore, Trinamool was ahead of BJP in 6 seats while in east Midnapore it was ahead of BJP in all the 9 seats.
In South 24-Parganas, Trinamool was ahead of BJP in all the 31 seats. In Howrah, Trinamool was ahead in 14 seats while BJP was ahead of Trinamool in Howrah Uttar seat. Congress took the lead in the Amta seat.
In Hooghly, BJP was ahead of TMC in 8 seats, namely, Pursurah, Goghat ( SC), Srirampur, Singur, Chinsurah, Balagarh ( SC), Pandua and Saptagram while TMC was ahead in 9 seats. In Alipurduar, BJP was ahead in all the five seats. In Cooch Behar, BJP was ahead in 9 seats while TMC was ahead of BJP in Sitai (SC) seat.
Political experts said the situation had changed from 2019. “In 2019, the Opposition did not have any face that could match Modi and BJP took advantage of this. Again, in 2018, there was a complaint against TMC that it did not allow the Opposition to vote in the Panchayat election and this had an impact on 2019 Lok Sabha poll results. Since 2019, Modi’s popularity has been fast falling because of mounting unemployment, poor economic condition and hiking price of fuel and cooking gas and this antiincumbency factor will play a major role in the Assembly election,” political experts added.
In 2019, CPI(M) supporters had transferred their vote to BJP. But CPI(M) found that taking advantage of the situation, BJP consolidated its position in Bengal. “In 2021, CPI(M) cadres will not vote for BJP,” said the experts.
Poll experts said taking into account these factors, the results of 2019 Lok Sabha poll would not be repeated and it was difficult for BJP to get 100 out of 135 seats where polls had been held in the first four phases.
‘...poor economic condition and hiking price of fuel and cooking gas and this anti- incumbency factor will play a major role in the Assembly election’