Looming threat

The increased frequency of cyclonic storms along the coastline of India over the past few years has been paralleled with improvements in risk-mitigation and prevention strategies. Apart from the improvement in the technical aspects of meteorology and early detection, greater seriousness has also been reflected by administrative units. Prompt response from both the Central and concerning state governments, following the IMD’s prediction that cyclone ‘Jawad’ may hit the parts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, bears testimony to this conviction. By the time of writing this editorial, a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal has been created, and northern coasts of Andhra Pradesh along with southern coast of Odisha were predicted to face the storm over the next couple of days. The IMD has issued red alert for four districts of Odisha — Ganjam, Puri, Gajapati and Jagatsinghpur; orange alert for seven districts — Cuttack, Nayagarh, Khurda, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Kendrapara and Koraput; and yellow alert for four districts — Jajpur, Bhadrak, Malkangiri and Balasore. These districts are predicted to receive heavy and very heavy rainfall on December 4. Odisha has the past experience of dealing with such situations successfully. In fact, Odisha has been facing it year after year — be it Yaas in May this year, Amphan last year, Bulbul and Fani in 2019 and Titli in 2018. The disaster response strategy of the state has only been refined over these years. Through proper evacuation, relief and rehabilitation, Odisha has managed to avoid the loss of many human lives but the economic costs of such disaster have been difficult to evade. This time again, the state has roped in NDRF, Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force and Fire Department to ward off any mishap that could unfold in the coming days. The primary focus, of course, has been on saving human lives. Fishermen are alerted and evacuation strategies are being worked out. There is a need, however, to consider the long-term economic and social fallouts of recurring cyclones as well. Bracing such disasters recurrently costs heavily on states’ exchequer. The affected state government must be assisted by the Union government financially and logistically at all stages — from relief and rescue to rebuilding. At the microlevel, farmers in the affected states are facing a different sort of dilemma. As per some media reports, fearing the cyclone, farmers are resorting to early paddy harvest in Odisha, which might hit their economic prospects significantly. For most of the farmers, agricultural income is season-based rather than daily, monthly or annually. Such issues need to be brought to the focus because only big storms that hit the coasts are able to grab headlines. The persistent uncertainty arising out of smaller landfalls looms large around the year. It is incumbent upon both Central and state governments to give due consideration to the persistent livelihood issues — be it for farmers or the fishermen. The growth prospects of concerned states and the nation largely depend on the social and economic health of these communities. Andhra Pradesh, at the same time, has been a silent victim all throughout. The geographical position of the state is as such that it gets affected by landfalls both towards the southern state of Tamil Nadu and in the upper regions of the country. In the present situation, the latest IMD predictions show that Jawad may skirt the coastline of Andhra Pradesh and move towards West Bengal and Northeast. The state has however rightly put necessary precautions in place. Schools in the state have been closed and trains are cancelled. The cyclone Jawad is also predicted to impact rainfall and wind patterns in other states like West Bengal, Jharkhand, Andaman & Nicobar and Northeastern states. It has to be emphasised that states need to establish a culture of coordination and pooling of resources and capacities whenever such disasters occur. The role of the Central government becomes critical in these circumstances. In the present situation, the Central government has taken stock of the situation and prepared control strategies. Now since coastal cyclones have become a common feature, the Central government must shoulder the bigger responsibility of putting in place a stable mechanism for mitigating the impacts of cyclones by bringing together the vulnerable states. For the time being, it can just be hoped that cyclone Jawad passes by without causing much destruction.