Absolute fiasco

India’s southern neighbor — Sri Lanka — is now finding itself in a state of complete turmoil. Things took an extreme turn on Monday when peaceful protestors vandalized and burnt politicians’ homes after supporters of Mahinda Rajapaksa beat up anti-government protestors in front of his residence. Mahinda had to resign from the post of Prime Minister and was rescued to a safe spot. As things stand today, Mahinda’s younger brother — Gotabaya Rajapaksa — remains the president and is spearheading a clampdown on protestors, including a shoot-on-sight order against protestors involved in looting and vandalizing properties.

The situation is indeed volatile in the island nation, and an end to decades long Rajapaksa dominance is being predicted by many. However, with the already weak opposition losing its sheen amid active people’s participation, no alternative power center appears to be in sight. Whatever be the regime coming out of this crisis, it will face a daunting task of reviving the economy that is in deep slumber. The reasons behind the Sri Lankan crisis offer a case study that merits close consideration — not just for Sri Lanka but for other nations in the subcontinent as well. The Sri Lankan crisis can broadly be attributed to two reasons — a flawed economic policy approach continuing for decades and a dynastic rule flourishing on the fault lines of deep ethnic divides in the country. Despite having a strong hold on the governance of the country for decades, Rajapaksa clan has done very little to bring in transformative economic changes that could lend spine to the growth of the nation. Even after seven decades of being free from the clutches of colonial rule, Sri Lanka’s economy relies on the quaint trend of heavily exporting primary commodities such as tea, rubber and garments and importing essential consumption items including food. In fact, one of the greatest problems with the country has been that its food security is tied to its foreign exchange — which depends on factors like tourism and export that have been severely hit by the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war. Furthermore, on the economic front, repeated IMF bailout packages — based on the conditionality of maintaining low fiscal deficit — have not worked in favor of Sri Lanka. These have, in fact, been seen as a depreciating factor for the economy in the long term. The country is currently trying to negotiate with the IMF for yet another bailout package but, given the politico-economic turmoil, Sri Lanka is left with very little bargaining power. Even deeper problem for Sri Lanka has been its long-persisting ethnic divide that has been serving as a fountain of elixir for those eager to come and remain in power. Towards the end of the first decade of this century, Sri Lanka did have a chance to break free from the shackles of ethnic divides, as the civil war came to a close with the defeat of LTTE, but Rajapaksa brothers decided to act otherwise. The Sri Lankan crisis should serve as a case study for other nations, particularly the developing ones, where the power thrives on communal or ethnic division among the people. Such a nation is predestined to fall apart — all it needs is an igniting factor. The critical question, however, is that if people want the Rajapaksa clan out of the scene, who will fill the gap? Leading opposition leaders are apprehensive of taking the uphill task of reviving the economically spoilt nation. In such a situation, foreign influence becomes inevitable. European nations and the US are “maintaining a close look” on the situation unfolding in the country and have condemned violence against innocent bystanders. More importantly, China, which has been a major lending partner to the nation, has hinted that it may look forward to supporting the nation’s economy. India has also been strategic in its move lately and has grown considerable stakes in the island nation. Sri Lanka’s instability is a matter of concern for India. It will have to play its cards very carefully to meet the twin objectives of helping its neighbor on humanitarian grounds and securing its own interests at the same time.