MODI’S DREAMS TIED TO UP POLLS
MAYAWATI, AMIT SHAH’S FORTUNES HANG IN BALANCE
At no time did UP witness so many stakeholders fighting for their prestige as in the 2017 Assembly polls. Stakes are indeed very high for them and their parties. It is a fight for survival for the two regional parties, SP and the BSP last ditch battle to remain relevant for the congress and a test on the BJP’S Central leadership of Modi and Amit Shah. It could be the end of the road for the SP patriarch Mulayam Singh, fading away for the supremo chief Mayawati and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Ajit Singh, if they fail.
Many believe that winning UP could advance Modi’s chances in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls although one Assembly poll cannot be the sole criterion. The Prime Minister has not made a secret that he will be bidding for a second and even a third term later. The opposition parties hold that the UP polls will be a referendum on Modi’s performance.
Linked to that is the BJP national president Amit Shah’s fortunes, who is credited with masterminding the BJP’S stellar performance in 2014 Lok Sabha polls when the party won 72 of the 80 seats. Since he is the main strategist, he has a lot at stake. The BJP has not projected any Chief Ministerial face and is seeking votes in Modi’s name. The party is looking for the upper caste plus Bania - its core vote base - apart from the non-yadav votes. It hopes that the recent surgical strike against Pakistan, demonetisation, and its social engineering and booth management that worked two years ago will do the trick. A poor show will not only embolden the opposition but also the senior leaders in the party who have been sidelined as well as demoralise the workers.
The ruling Samajwadi Party, which is bidding for a second term, is equally anxious. There is a generational shift with Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav taking control of the party last month after an ugly family feud. The SP has gone for poll tie-up with the Congress for the first time and if the gamble works, it could be taken forward to the 2019 polls but the trick is to keep the Muslim-yadav vote intact. It is a make or mar battle for the young Chief Minister, who has emerged out of the shadows of his father, for if he proves himself, he will not only emerge as the UP Chief Minister again but also his stature will go up in the national politics. While the party has been seeking votes on the plank of development, it is common knowledge that there is deteriorating law and order and lack of governance in the past five years. If the gamble fails, its patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav will have to reconcile to fading away. Since the nineties, the SP and the BSP have been alternating in power making the national parties like the BJP and the Congress irrelevant.
Uttar Pradesh is crucial for the Congress party also, which had its last Chief Minister in 1989. Rahul Gandhi, who has teamed up with Akhilesh represents the generational shift in UP politics. The Congress is looking for an improvement of its present 28 seats that could boost the image of the party as well as that of Rahul Gandhi, who is looking to emerge as an alternative to Modi and become the glue for the opposition parties. For the Congress chief Sonia Gandhi also it will be easier to hand over the baton. For the third member of the Gandhi family Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who is getting a raised profile after she managed to clinch the tie up with the SP, this will be a case of testing waters for her future entry into active politics. The Congress hopes to attract a mix of upper castes, backward classes and the poll tie-up for Muslim votes.
Mayawati is quietly working hard to keep her Dalit vote bank intact. She had been the four-time Chief Minister and is bidding for power for the fifth time. If she can trump the father-son duo, she could emerge bigger in the state and national politics. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls her party got zero seats despite a 31 per cent vote share. She had delivered on the law and order as Chief Minister while the SP is known for what she called “jungle raj”. What she needs is the plus votes from the Muslims and some upper castes. She has given tickets to 99 Muslim candidates. Disenchanted with the SP, if the Muslims decide to back her, she could even form the government if her social engineering works. The BSP is not averse to a post-poll arrangement with any party if required.
Another leader who is waiting to test his fortunes is the RLD chief, Ajit Singh. As in SP and the Congress, his son Jayant is waiting to take over. The party has some Jat votes in Western UP and won 9 seats in 2012 polls. Had the SP and Congress included the RLD in the alliance the arithmetic would have worked much better. Ajit Singh and his son Jayant’s future are uncertain.
The longest ever campaigns of all four parties are indicative not just of their own survival instincts, but also the opportunities that the UP election offers to them. For one, it will determine how they can position themselves before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Mayawati has given tickets to 99 Muslim candidates. Disenchanted with the SP, if the Muslims decide to back her, she could even form the government if her social engineering works. The BSP is not averse to a post-poll arrangement with any party if required