Too soon to say low growth trend has been reversed: Manmohan

SURAT: Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Saturday welcomed the uptick in the Q2 GDP growth to 6.3 per cent but cautioned that it is too early to say there is a reversal in decline seen in the past five quarters. Singh also said at this rate it is not possible for the Narendra Modi government to equal UPA government’s 10-year average growth rate.

“July-september quarter has registered a growth rate of 6.3 per cent. This is to be welcomed, but is too early to conclude that this represents a reversal of the declining trend seen in the previous five quarters,” Singh, also a former finance minister, told a gathering of businessmen here.

“Some economists believe that the Cen- tral Statistics Office (CSO) has not adequately captured the impact of demonetisation and GST on the informal sector that accounts for about 30 per cent of the economy,” he said. Further quoting economists M Govinda Rao and former chairman of National Statistical Commission Pranab Sen, the former prime minister said, “There is still considerable uncertainty about the growth of GDP.”

“The RBI forecasts that growth in 201718 will pick up to 6.7 per cent. However, even if growth reaches 6.7 per cent in 201718, Modiji’s four-year average growth rate will still be only 7.1 per cent.” He claimed that the Modi government will not be able to equal the UPA government’s 10-year average growth rate.