Decoding phase-iii
With most number of seats contested today, the third phase of Lok Sabha POLLS WILL DEFINITELY BE PIVOTAL TO THE GRAND OUTCOME
April 23 will witness the most crucial Lok Sabha Election of 2019, the date on which 117 constituencies across 14 states will vote. NDA, UPA, and anti-modi alliances have been leaving no stone unturned because there are very high stakes in this phase. It would be opening the window on the next government formation, not only because the largest number of seats is going to poll but also it would mark the end of the election on 303 seats leaving only 240 seats for the next four phases.
With the election on four seats - Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Barpeta, and Gauhati – election process in Assam will be over. Barring Gauhati, which BJP is most likely to retain, NDA nowhere has the upper hand. The effect of NRC is clearly visible on voters. They are sharply polarised on communal lines. However, the poll mathematics is not that much in BJP’S favour as they have presumed. In the final reckoning, BJP is most likely to lose two seats out of seven they have in the state which has 14 altogether.
Five seats - Jhanjharpur, Supaul, Araria, Madhepura, and Khagaria – in Bihar are being contested tooth and nail. It is NDA vs UPA, and no one is assured of their victory. The impact of NYAY is visible. Antiincumbency against NDA working. But the alliance of the BJP, JD(U), and LJP have tilted the poll arithmetic in their favour except in Araria which is an RJD seat presently.
With seven seats - Surguja, Raigarh, Janjgir-champa, Korba, Bilaspur, Durg, and Raipur – going to poll in this phase, election in Chhattisgarh will be over. INC is clearly winning Durg and Korba and giving a tough fight to BJP in Surguja and Raipur. However, BJP seems to have the upper hand in Raigarh, Janjgirchampa, and Bilaspur. In the final reckoning, BJP is likely to win five, and INC four out of 11 in the state. The rest two seats are emanating conflicting signals which may go to any side depending on the swing of votes on the polling day.
The UTS, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu, have two seats altogether, one in each. Both seats are presently held by BJP, albeit with a very small winning margin of 3.83
and 10.73 per cent respectively. Due to their proximity to Maharashtra and Gujarat, where BJP is strongest compared to all other states in the country, the party seems to have considerable influence on voters. However, INC in Dadra and Nagar Haveli is not far behind. In Daman and Diu too, INC has made the BJP’S walk-over a little difficult. Anti-incumbency against BJP seems to be working.
BJP seems to be comfortable in North Goa, but they are in trouble in South Goa this time. Both the seats are presently held by the party. Their winning margin in South Goa in 2014 was only 7.96 per cent. The party has been weakened since then and there is anti-incumbency too. They need to exert more to save this site for themselves from the INC onslaught.
Gujarati pride is working more effectively in favour of Modi in Gujarat than his so-called charisma. All the 26 constituencies in the state are going to poll in this phase, and in
most of them, BJP is comfortably placed. However, in Anand, Bardoli, and Sabarkantha, BJP candidates are in a close contest with INC. BJP had won these seats in the height of Modi wave in 2014 by margins of only 6.65, 10.44, and 7.88 per cent which has given great hope to INC of snatching these seats from BJP. INC and all other political parties are putting their best efforts to make this happen.
Since the election in Anantnag constituency of Jammu and Kashmir will be held in three phases from now, it is not clear which side the wind is blowing. Mehbooba Mufti of PDP had won this seat in 2014 defeating Mirza Mehboob Beg of JKNC by a margin of 17.71 per cent. This is the only constituency in the country where elections will be held in multiple phases. She has lately become Modi’s bête noir and, therefore, BJP is trying its best to sabotage her chances of a win. Mehbooba has more than once voiced her concern about the misuse of security forces by Modi at the helm of affairs in the Centre, and there is a rumour in the area that the administrative system is indirectly, and by default, in favour of JKNC. However, it would be too early to say anything about this constituency before the fifth phase of the election.
With the election in 14 constituencies - Chikkodi, Belgaum, Bagalkot, Bijapur, Gulbarga, Raichur, Bidar, Koppal, Bellari, Haveri, Dharwad, Uttara Kannada, Davanagere, and Shimoga - in this phase, the election in Karnataka will be complete. Anti-incumbency and counter-antiincumbency against BJP and UPA respectively had made the situation volatile in the state. BJP has upper hand in Shimoga, and Uttar Kannada, but in Bagalkot, Dharwad, and Bidar they are in a close contest with UPA. In Belgaum, Bijapur, Koppal, Bellary, Haveri, and Devangere, BJP candidates are struggling to retain their seats which the party had won with a slender margin in 2014, even while riding on Modi Wave. INC is
most likely to retain their Chikkodi, Gulbarga, and Raichur seats. In the final reckoning, it seems, BJP may lose eight seats out of 17 they presently hold among the 29 seats in the state. Even in the worst of situations, UPA is likely to bag at least 16 seats.
All the 20 constituencies will be voting in Kerala. There is UPA vs LDF this time too, and BJP or NDA may not be able to even open their account. With Rahul Gandhi contesting from Wayanad, prospects of INC have brightened a little compared to LDF. There are close fights in almost all seats except in Ernakulam, Kottayam, Malappuram, and Palakkad held presently by INC, KEC(M), IUML, and CPM respectively. They are most likely retaining their seat. However, there will be no cake-walk for Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad, the seat which was won by the INC in 2014 by a slender margin of only 2.31 per cent. There are 13 constituencies in the state where the winning margin was less than 5 per cent. Obviously, the state is witnessing toughest political battle compared to all the states in the country.
BJP and Shiv Sena have an edge over their adversaries in Maharashtra. A total of 14 seats are going to poll in this phase. BJP is comfortable in Jalgaon, Raver, Pune, Ahmednagar, Sangli, and Jalna. SHS is comfortable in Aurangabad and Ratnagirisindhudurg, but struggling to retain its Raigad seat which it had won by a very slender margin of 0.22 per cent in 2014. NDA has put NCP in a vulnerable position in Baramati, Madha, and Kolhapur which NCP had won by small margins of only 6.63, 2.36, and 2.65 respectively. NCP is comfortably placed in Satara and SWP in Hatkanagle.
Out of six seats - Sambalpur, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Cuttack, Puri, and Bhubaneswar – in Odisha, only Sambalpur presents a challenge to BJD which the party had won by a slender margin of 3.15 per cent in the last election. In all others, they will have a comfortable win. There is a triangular fight on Sambalpur seat where BJD, BJP, and INC are pitted against each other. BJP was runnerup last time and INC was not also far behind.
Ten seats of Uttar Pradesh Moradabad, Rampur, Sambhal, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Badaun, Aonla, Bareilly, and Pilibhit – are to vote in this phase. BJP is most likely to retain Utah, Bareilly, and Pilibhit, but will be losing Moradabad, Rampur, and Sambhal to SP-BSP alliance which they had won by a slender margin of 7.79, 2.47, and 0.49 per cent respectively despite the Modi wave in 2014. There is a tough fight in Aonla between the two with a slight edge of SP-BSP alliance. SP will retain its Firozabad, Mainpuri, and Badaun seats.
Among the five constituencies in West Bengal, INC is comfortably placed in Maldha Dakshin and AITC in Balurghat. However, in Malda Uttar, Jangipur, and Murshidabad, the fight is between INC and CPM. Unexpected results may come out from these seats. INC had won the first two of three by small margins of only 5.70 and 0.74 per cent while the CPM had won the last by a margin of only 1.44 per cent.
IPA
(The views expressed are strictly personal)
This phase would be opening the window on the next government formation, not only because the largest number of seats is going to poll but also because it would mark the end of the election on 303 seats leaving only 240 seats for the next four phases