WHO HAS THE NUMBERS?

Many believe that BJP will come back to assume power; but many more will agree that its majority cannot be as convincing as in 2014. Securing 282 seats of the 543 again, appears unlikely. The ball then has quickly bounced into the courts of regional parties who will play significantly in deciding the government that runs our country for, hopefully, the next five years.

India’s tryst with coalition governments has been a mixed bag of happy tenures and abrupt sentences. While Atal Bihari Vajpayee

led NDA and Manmohan Singh’s UPAS both sustained their terms with more credibility than shame (until UPA II’S corruption assault) – some others, like the Janata Dal

led United Front collapsed without closure. On the other hand, while majoritarian governments have been able to present a facade of apparent stability within organisational ranks, their actions have been deeply damaging– Indira Gandhi’s Emergency and Narendra Modi’s demonetisation both stand testimony to the evils of running a democracy without acknowledging difference.

Objectively, neither a coalition nor a single-party majority can assure successful governance. What matters ultimately is that we build a government that is truly for the people, of the people and by the

people; not one that simply emerges from the people to assume unquestionable authority.

In India, ultimately, while stability at the Centre is important, perhaps recognising difference and providing governance that is mindful of difference will be paramount to achieving true economic growth. History too stands testimony; despite coalition governments collapsing more often than majoritarian ones, their performance has been markedly better. For instance, statistically, India achieved most economic growth under the governance of UPA-1, while maximum economic reforms were undertaken by the Narasimha Rao-led minority government.

Now, with results for the 17th Lok Sabha due in four days, the possibilities of a coalition seem real, and plausibly so. When BJP shot to power in 2014, few had anticipated that in five years they would incite enough hate to motivate regional powers, who were so long logged in their own battles, to pick up their boots and aim for national leadership. While the ruling party’s army of campaigners has carefully dismissed the coalition as a noxious mixture of conflicting elements seeking to grab power, Indian today may actually perform better under a coalition government that accounts for each section of our very diverse society – rather than a fundamentalist who only sits as the cherry on a considerably layered cake.

On May 13, when MK Stalin met Telangana chief minister K Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR), speculations were strife that all wasn’t well within the UPA camp. Particularly because DMK (led by Stalin) has been a sworn ally of the UPA, while KCR’S TRS has remained firm in its resolve to support only a Third Front of non-congress and nonbjp parties. The cloud was soon cleared after KCR admitted that he would not mind a coalition with Congress, provided the grand old party does not seek a larger share of the pie than it deserves.

Interestingly, YSR Congress (YSRC) led by Jagan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh had earlier said that his party would join whichever coalition was supported by KCR. Both had been in the BJP’S radar as possible partners in a post poll hung assembly scenario. YSRC and TRS, both are expecting to sweep their states. With a combined 46 seats at stake here, them securing even 30, as is predicted, could make a noticeable difference in the final tally. So far, while KCR is tilting towards a federal front, the cautious Jagan has refrained from making any public statement until results are announced on 23, when Andhra Pradesh will also welcome a new state government, which Reddy seeks to wrest from incumbent Chandrababu Naidu, who