Onto the fourth phase
Deliberations over exit strategies have gained momentum across the globe. As India approaches the end of the third phase of national lockdown, the moot question remains: how to open up the Indian economy whilst keeping the contagion at bay? After more than seven weeks of curbs, the dawn of a new normal is inevitable. It is a global realisation that lockdown cannot be the norm and hence all countries are scratching heads over the best route to take as they lift curbs. In the fifth meeting between chief ministers and the prime minister, the latter called for proposals from states over the same. These proposals would be instrumental in deciding the contours of an inevitable fourth phase of lockdown. But given the statespecific contagion maps and outstanding issues such as a
large number of returning migrants, it would be prudent if Centre devolves the responsibility of drafting finer norms of restrictions to states itself. It is clear that the virus has travelled across the nation but the high incidence of cases appear concentrated in a few states, and that too in urban centres of those states. This calls for a state-specific strategy which would be a departure from the one-size-fits-all approach that the Centre has advocated in the first three phases of the lockdown. While the prime minister batted for a new
lockdown strategy, India’s concern has been an incessantly rising tally of cases. To add to the misery, India is yet to hit the peak as per experts. The challenge, therefore, is to combat the spread of infection while resuming lives. The fourth phase of lockdown has to allow the economic wheel to rotate and gain momentum whilst protecting lives. The economic package announced by the Centre will provide the impetus.
Lockdown 4.0 necessitates further resumption of economic activity as the realisation of new normal seeps in. People will have to strictly abide by social distancing norms. Supply lines of non-essential items should resume even as wide consensus exists over the continued closure of educational institutes, hotels, cinemas, malls, etc. Stakeholders such as Airlines, local transportation, corporates, etc., must come up with a re-emergence plan should the government allow partial or even complete resumption of activity. The global medical fraternity advocates for compulsory use of masks when heading out as they are instrumental in reducing the probability of contracting the virus through droplets in the air. Sanitisers and handwash facilities will have to be ramped up so that transmission chances can be minimised. Since cases have risen despite a strict lockdown in place, the tally will likely rise even further but the recovery rate (presently around 35 per cent) should also keep rising in the same proportion or more. The frequency of tests has to rise even further, surpassing other nations in magnitude given we’re the world’s second-most populous country. While people are largely conscious of the prevailing adversity, there have been instances underlined by the media that show how social distancing was severely violated, dangerously raising chances of transmission. Therefore, punitive measures ought to be initiated against offenders in such cases. The response by societies in the fourth phase of the
lockdown would allow governments to draw out further roadmap. Restrictions of any sort cannot last indefinitely and hence, governments ought to proceed carefully, collecting and collating data as they ease restrictions. The goal remains the same: break the chain of transmission. It is the many paths that we ought to craft and wisely choose amongst, which would decide how we progress against this pandemic.