‘June qtr goods export to rise 12.3% y-o-y’ Heatwave about to end, except in Rajasthan and Kerala: IMD
The Export-Import Bank has predicted that India’s merchandise exports will reach $116.7 billion in the ongoing first quarter of financial year 2025, growing 12.3% yearon-year on strong economic fundamentals and sustained manufacturing and services activity.
The Exim Bank, which promotes India’s international trade, also projected non-oil exports to grow by 10.7% to reach $93.9 billion during the same period.
The report underscored that an anticipated global easing of monetary tightening is expected to enhance global demand, which would provide further support to India’s export growth.
“The positive outlook for India’s exports is supported by several factors. The key drivers for it are strong GDP growth fundamentals and outlook, along with sustained momentum in the manufacturing and services sectors,” the state-run organization said in its report.
The projections are in sync with the World Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) positive outlower look for global trade, which is expected to benefit India’s export growth.
In its latest trade forecast, WTO estimated that global goods and merchandise trade would recover gradually this year from the downturn in 2023 due to high energy prices and inflation.
In its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, WTO projected the volume of global merchandise trade to increase by 2.6% in 2024 and by 3.3% in 2025, benefiting from easing economic pressures and rising incomes.
The Exim Bank’s forecast for India’s export growth follows recent data showing a narrowing merchandise trade deficit.
In March, India’s trade deficit narrowed to $15.6 billion from $18.71 billion in February and $16.02 billion in January, according to commerce ministry data.
This marks the lowest deficit in 11 months, with the previous figure recorded in April 2023 at $14.44 billion.
There are risks to the Exim Bank’s positive outlook. Uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, and the potential escalation of the Red Sea crisis leading to deeper geo-economic fragmentation could pose challenges to the growth projection.
The Exim Bank releases its forecast for growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports quarterly in the first fortnight of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters.
This forecast is based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next forecast on India’s exports in the September quarter will be released in the first fortnight of August
Meanwhile, PTI, citing commerce ministry data reported that India’s exports have increased to as many as 115 countries out of the total 238 destinations during 2023-24 despite the global economic uncertainties. The country’s merchandise exports dipped by 3% to $437.1 billion in FY24. However, services exports rose to $341.1 billion in 2023-24 as against $325.3 billion in 2022-23, the data showed.
Heat wave conditions are about to end across the country except in Kerala and Rajasthan, according to the weather department.
“Heatwave is about to end across the country. Only in West Rajasthan and Kerala heatwave alert has been issued. Tomorrow (Friday), the heatwave will only be present in West Rajasthan. We have issued it with a yellow alert because we don’t have a lot of hope for the impact,” news agency ANI quoted IMD scientist Soma Sen as saying.
Maximum temperatures in Rajasthan hovered in the range of 43–46 degrees Celsius with Barmer recording the highest temperature of 46 degrees Celsius, followed by Ganganagar (45.2 degrees C), Jaisalmer (45.2 degrees C) and Jodhpur (45 degrees C), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its latest bulletin issued on Thursday.
The weather department had earlier indicated that temperatures would continue to increase over the next two days—particularly in the Jaipur, Jodhpur, and Bharatpur divisions. Temperatures in various districts have already crossed the 44°C mark.
The IMD scientist also said that thunderstorm activity in the country was set to increase as “strong moisture flow came to the country from the Bay of Bengal”. The forecast broached the possibility of “cloud-to-ground lightning in these thunderstorms”.
The country, especially the eastern and southern regions, has been bearing the brunt of a severe heat waves since the middle of April.
In contrast, wet spells accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely over central, east and south peninsular India until Sunday.
IMD does not see any significant change in maximum temperatures over Northwest India for the next two days and fall by about 2–3 degrees C thereafter.
According to a new report, as many as 27 large cities across India experienced “heat stress”—a situation when the heat index exceeds 41 degrees Celsius—to varying degrees in April.
The heat index is a new metric launched last year by IMD to measure the “apparent” temperature based on a location’s temperature as well as humidity.
Temperatures exceeding 41 degrees are classified in the “danger” category, according to Respirer Living Sciences, a start-up that works in the field of data sciences and technology research for living environments, that released the report.
Global easing of monetary tightening is expected to enhance demand, aiding India’s exports