Partisan lines sharpen further ahead of polls
Strong partisans—those with deep affinity with their chosen party—are now 44% of the urban segment. This has strong implications on what kind of politics to expect on social media, on the poll trail, and on the ballot.
The political divide in Indian society is getting shriller by the day, and we have data to show this. Nearly 44% of 12,544 urban Indians interviewed in our most recent survey showed signs of intense passion towards one or the other political party. The share of such persons, who we label as ‘strong partisans’, has increased steadily since 2021, when it was 37%. Such individuals are more likely to engage in political debate online even though they face more negativity on social media, the survey found.
Five times in the last two years, the YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey has asked Indians which party they identify with—and how deeply. Do you take the party’s criticism as a personal insult and does praise make you feel good? Do you refer to it as ‘my party’? When you meet a fellow supporter, do you feel some connection? Those who are more emphatic in saying yes to these questions get classed as ‘strong partisans’ in our index—the rest are moderates and weak partisans, based on their responses.
As seen in past rounds, older generations are more attached to their preferred parties. The share of strong partisans was 45% among those born before 1981, 47% among millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996), and 40% among post-millennials. Nearly 48% of men were strongly partisan, while women were less so (39%).
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had a far more loyal base than others. As many as 59% of BJP supporters showed strong feelings about the party, while only 48% of Congress supporters felt the same about Congress. The first part of this series showed that the BJP now has support from almost half of urban India.
We now see that this support is firm—and personal.
Conducted online in December 2023, the survey involved participants across more than 200 cities and towns, focusing on election-related attitudes among India’s digital natives. Around 84% of the respondents were millennials or younger. This was the 11th round of the biannual survey, which is a collaboration between Mint, survey partner YouGov India, and Centre for Policy Research (CPR), a Delhi-based think tank.
THE BATTLE LINES
The findings indicate a divisive landscape, which is shaping the world view of urban Indians on multiple aspects of politics. While only 30% of the respondents claimed to be engaging in online political discussions “always”, the share was 46% among strong partisans. Just 8% of strong partisans “never” engaged in such activities. Weak partisans were polar opposites: 41% said they never engaged in such political discussions online. Moderate partisans showed a somewhat balanced distribution.
As a result, strong partisans were also more likely to face negative interactions or harassment online for their political views. The share of respondents who reported facing this was around one in every three overall, but among strong partisans, this was nearly half. Among weak partisans, the share was less than one in every five.
The survey asked respondents about their voting habits and their interest levels in national and state elections. Around 64% claimed to have voted consistently since becoming eligible. Strong partisans were more likely to actively vote, and were invested in both national and state elections. The share of respondents who claimed to have voted in every election since they became eligible was higher among strong partisans (73%) than moderates (62%) and weak partisans (55%).
How does partisanship affect the choice of party in the state- and national-level elections? Almost two-thirds said they had voted for the same party in the 2019 national elections and the most recent Assembly elections in their state. Strong partisans were much more likely to stick with one party, and it is only among the weak partisans that split voting was much more likely to happen—almost a coin toss.
ELECTION MOOD
Lastly, the survey asked respondents about their plans for the 2024 national elections to gauge their intention to vote and take part in various political activities. Almost four-fifths indicated their intention to vote this time, but here, too, the share was the highest among strong partisans (86%), followed by moderates (79%) and weak partisans (71%).
There seems to be a decent level of interest among respondents to participate in various election-related activities: 23% showed intent to volunteer in campaigns for a political party or candidate, 21% planned to attend rallies, 17% expect to donate to campaigns, and 18% are even planning to become a member of a party. Strong partisans expressed more willingness to volunteer, attend rallies, financially contribute and join parties. With partisanship showing a consistent increase over the years, and strong partisans showing more willingness to participate in election-related activities, expect the 2024 campaign to be high-pitched, emotional and personal.
(The authors are associated with CPR, New Delhi.) This is the fifth part of a series about the findings of the survey. Note that these surveys are skewed towards urban well-to-do netizens, with
89% respondents falling under the
“NCCS-A” socioeconomic category of consumers. Scan QR code for past articles and full methodology details. Raw data will be released this week.