Weatherman sees a very wet monsoon

La Nina likely to set in by Aug-Sept, bringing plentiful rains

India will likely receive abovenormal monsoon rainfall this year with the El Nino weather phenomenon turning neutral and benign La Nina conditions setting in by August-September, the government’s weather office said, signalling relief across sectors, especially in agriculture.

Farmers across India suffered last year, with the Pacific-born El Niño phenomenon, which is associated with a warming ocean, sparking deficient rainfall, leading to 6% below-normal rainfall during monsoon. By contrast, La Nina causes the ocean to cool, creating conditions for steady rainfall.

“India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall estimated at 106% of LPA (87 cm),” India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mahapatra said.

“Moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing at present. It is predicted to turn neutral by the time monsoon season commences. Thereafter, models suggest, La Lina conditions may set in by August-September.” Cumulative monsoon rain nationwide between 104-110% of LPA is considered ‘above normal’.

The sequence of events seems just right for an upturn in the weather. Between 1951 and 2023, India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on just nine occasions—and each time, La Nina followed an El Nino event, Mohapatra said.

The monsoon season is crucial for India as it delivers nearly 70% of its annual rainfall. Nearly half of

India’s arable land doesn’t have access to irrigation and depends on these rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybean. Agriculture accounts for about 14% of the country’s GDP. About 56% of the net cultivated area is rain-fed, accounting for 44% of food production.