Weatherman predicts a very wet monsoon ahead
Normal rainfall leads to robust crop production, helping keep a lid on food prices, including vegetables.
“Above normal rainfall with normal distribution over space and time augurs well not only for agricultural production but also the sluggish demand growth. However, adverse weather events due to climate change have the potential to cast a shadow over optimistic agricultural and consumption growth,” said Devendra Pant, chief economist at India Ratings. “Despite an increase in irrigation intensity, Indian agriculture has a high dependence on rainfall. This is evident from agriculture GVA (gross value added) growth in the December quarter of 2023-24,” Pant estimated.
“On the assumption of normal rainfall and its spread over space and time across the country during June-September (southwest monsoon), Indian agricultural GVA is expected to grow around 3% in 2024-25,” he added. GVA growth of agriculture and allied sectors contracted 0.8% in the October-December quarter from 1.6% growth seen in the previous quarter. This is the first time in 19 quarters that farm GVA saw a decline. The growth rate was 5.2% in the year-ago period. In FY23, agriculture GVA growth stood at 4.7%, while in the first quarter of the current financial year, it was recorded at 3.5%.
“Food inflation risks remain high over the coming months due to expectation of heat waves. This could create volatility in vegetable prices. However, an above normal monsoon in 2024 could act as a buffer and help ease inflationary pressures during the kharif season. That said, the distribution of rainfall would remain critical, particularly if there is risk of excess rainfall during the latter half of the kharif season,” said Sakhshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank
India received “below-average” rainfall—820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm— in 2023, an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded “normal” and “above-normal” rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.
El Nino, Spanish for “little boy,” is a climatic pattern marked by elevated sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon tends to emerge every two to seven years and can last from nine to twelve months, affecting weather conditions globally.
La Nina, or “little girl” in Spanish, is characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the same regions. Occurring roughly every three to five years, La Nina can sometimes happen in consecutive years, bringing about increased rainfall and distinct weather patterns.
Three large-scale climatic developments are considered for forecasting monsoon rains-El Nino, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which occurs due to differential warming of the western and eastern sides of the equatorial Indian Ocean, and the snow cover over the northern Himalayas and the Eurasian landmass, which also has an impact on the Indian monsoon.