‘June qtr goods export to rise 12.3% y-o-y’
The Export-Import Bank has predicted that India’s merchandise exports will reach $116.7 billion in the ongoing first quarter of financial year 2025, growing 12.3% yearon-year on strong economic fundamentals and sustained manufacturing and services activity.
The Exim Bank, which promotes India’s international trade, also projected non-oil exports to grow by 10.7% to reach $93.9 billion during the same period.
The report underscored that an anticipated global easing of monetary tightening is expected to enhance global demand, which would provide further support to India’s export growth.
“The positive outlook for India’s exports is supported by several factors. The key drivers for it are strong GDP growth fundamentals and outlook, along with sustained momentum in the manufacturing and services sectors,” the state-run organization said in its report.
The projections are in sync with the World Trade Organization’s (WTO’s) positive outlower look for global trade, which is expected to benefit India’s export growth.
In its latest trade forecast, WTO estimated that global goods and merchandise trade would recover gradually this year from the downturn in 2023 due to high energy prices and inflation.
In its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, WTO projected the volume of global merchandise trade to increase by 2.6% in 2024 and by 3.3% in 2025, benefiting from easing economic pressures and rising incomes.
The Exim Bank’s forecast for India’s export growth follows recent data showing a narrowing merchandise trade deficit.
In March, India’s trade deficit narrowed to $15.6 billion from $18.71 billion in February and $16.02 billion in January, according to commerce ministry data.
This marks the lowest deficit in 11 months, with the previous figure recorded in April 2023 at $14.44 billion.
There are risks to the Exim Bank’s positive outlook. Uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, and the potential escalation of the Red Sea crisis leading to deeper geo-economic fragmentation could pose challenges to the growth projection.
The Exim Bank releases its forecast for growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports quarterly in the first fortnight of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters.
This forecast is based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next forecast on India’s exports in the September quarter will be released in the first fortnight of August
Meanwhile, PTI, citing commerce ministry data reported that India’s exports have increased to as many as 115 countries out of the total 238 destinations during 2023-24 despite the global economic uncertainties. The country’s merchandise exports dipped by 3% to $437.1 billion in FY24. However, services exports rose to $341.1 billion in 2023-24 as against $325.3 billion in 2022-23, the data showed.
Global easing of monetary tightening is expected to enhance demand, aiding India’s exports