US re­ces­sion risk at 6-year high on trade, shut­down


Econ­o­mists put the risk of a US re­ces­sion at the high­est in more than six years amid mount­ing dan­gers from fi­nan­cial mar­kets, a trade war with China and the fed­eral-gov­ern­ment shut­down. An­a­lysts sur­veyed by Bloomberg see a me­dian 25% chance of a slump in the next 12 months, up from 20% in the De­cem­ber sur­vey. The Fed­eral Re­serve is now pro­jected to keep in­ter­est rates steady in the first quar­ter, in­stead of rais­ing them, be­fore two in­creases to­tal this year—down from four moves in 2018.

The me­dian pro­jec­tion for 2019 growth edged down to 2.5% fol­low­ing 2.9% in 2018 as the boost from fis­cal stim­u­lus fades. Growth is still likely to be buoyed by a strong jobs mar­ket, ris­ing wages and some lin­ger­ing ef­fects of tax cuts. If the ex­pan­sion that be­gan in 2009 lasts un­til July, it would mark 10 years and be­come the coun­try’s long­est on record. BLOOMBERG

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