US recession risk at 6-year high on trade, shutdown
Economists put the risk of a US recession at the highest in more than six years amid mounting dangers from financial markets, a trade war with China and the federal-government shutdown. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see a median 25% chance of a slump in the next 12 months, up from 20% in the December survey. The Federal Reserve is now projected to keep interest rates steady in the first quarter, instead of raising them, before two increases total this year—down from four moves in 2018.
The median projection for 2019 growth edged down to 2.5% following 2.9% in 2018 as the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Growth is still likely to be buoyed by a strong jobs market, rising wages and some lingering effects of tax cuts. If the expansion that began in 2009 lasts until July, it would mark 10 years and become the country’s longest on record. BLOOMBERG