Sen­ti­ment re­mains ten­ta­tive

Money Times - - Front Page - By San­jay R. Bha­tia

The mar­kets con­tin­ued their down­ward jour­ney last week amidst high volatil­ity on ac­count of weak do­mes­tic and global cues be­fore wit­ness­ing a smart re­bound on Fri­day on the back of pos­i­tive news flow. The Nifty breached the 10150 mark early dur­ing the week due to sus­tained sell­ing pres­sure. How­ever, the mar­kets man­aged to close the week above this level on the back of bar­gain buy­ing and short-cov­er­ing. The FIIs con­tin­ued to be net sell­ers in the cash seg­ment but re­mained net buy­ers in the de­riv­a­tives seg­ment. The DIIs con­tin­ued to sup­port the mar­kets at the lower lev­els and re­mained net buy­ers. The breadth of the mar­ket re­mained neg­a­tive amidst low vol­umes. On the global front, crude oil prices moved lower with Brent trad­ing around $81/bar­rel. On the do­mes­tic front, the Q2 earn­ings sea­son has started on a sound note with TCS de­liv­er­ing an­other set of good num­bers with a pos­i­tive fu­ture out­look. The gov­ern­ment plans to take mea­sures on oil prices and liq­uid­ity crunch. Tech­ni­cally, the pre­vail­ing pos­i­tive tech­ni­cal con­di­tions helped the mar­kets bounce back. The Stochas­tic, KST and

RSI are all placed above their re­spec­tive av­er­ages on the daily chart. Fur­ther, the Stochas­tic is placed in the over­sold zone on the weekly chart. More­over, the Nifty’s 50-day SMA is placed above its 100-day SMA and 200-day

SMA and its 100-day SMA is placed above its 200-day

SMA, in­di­cat­ing a ‘golden cross’ break­out. These pos­i­tive tech­ni­cal con­di­tions could lead to short-cov­er­ing and fol­low-up buy­ing sup­port.

The pre­vail­ing neg­a­tive tech­ni­cal con­di­tions, how­ever, still hold good and could weigh on the mar­ket sen­ti­ment.

The Stochas­tic, MACD, KST and RSI are all placed be­low their re­spec­tive av­er­ages on the weekly chart. The Nifty is still placed be­low its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200day SMA. These neg­a­tive tech­ni­cal con­di­tions could lead to in­ter­me­di­ate bouts of profit-book­ing and sell­ing pres­sure es­pe­cially at the higher lev­els.

The -DI line is placed above the +DI line and the ADX line and above 37. But it has come off its re­cent highs, which in­di­cates that the sell­ers are cov­er­ing shorts. The ADX line is placed above 47.

Now fol­low us on In­sta­gram, Face­book & Twit­ter at mon­ey­times_1991 on a daily ba­sis to get a view of the stock mar­ket and the hap­pen­ings which many may not be aware of.

The Nifty has man­aged to sus­tain above 11200, which au­gurs well for the mar­kets. It is im­por­tant for the Nifty to sus­tain above 11400 for sell­ing pres­sure to ease and to move higher to test 10589. Be­low 10200, the Nifty could fall fur­ther to test 10000 due to in­ten­si­fied sell­ing pres­sure. The mar­ket sen­ti­ment re­mains ten­ta­tive. Reg­u­lar fol­low-up buy­ing sup­port is needed for the mar­kets to come out of the cur­rent tur­moil.

Ru­pee and crude oil prices re­main a chal­lenge for the In­dian econ­omy. Let’s see how the gov­ern­ment han­dles it ahead of the elec­tions. Mean­while, the mar­kets will take cues from the earn­ings sea­son, global mar­kets, Dol­lar-Ru­pee ex­change rate and crude oil prices. Tech­ni­cally, the Sen­sex faces re­sis­tance at the 34937, 35322, 36350, 37165, 37630, 38250, 38761 and 38989 lev­els and seeks sup­port at the 34344 and 32596 lev­els. The re­sis­tance lev­els for the Nifty are placed at 10589, 10748 and 10808 while its sup­port lev­els are placed at 10419, 10340, 10283, 10000, 9958, 9827 and 9735.

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