IMD fore­casts de­layed South­west mon­soon over Ker­ala

Rural & Marketing - - Updates -

In­dia Me­te­o­ro­log­i­cal De­part­ment (IMD) fore­cast sug­gests that the on­set of South­west mon­soon this year over Ker­ala is likely to be slightly de­layed. The sta­tis­ti­cal model used by IMD for pre­dict­ing the on­set of mon­soon, in­di­cates that the south­west mon­soon is likely to set over Ker­ala on June 7 with a model er­ror of ± 4 days.

The on­set of south­west mon­soon over Ker­ala sig­nals the ar­rival of mon­soon over the In­dian sub­con­ti­nent and rep­re­sents be­gin­ning of rainy sea­son over the re­gion. The nor­mal mon­soon on­set over Ker­ala is 1 June 1. Since 2005, In­dia Me­te­o­ro­log­i­cal De­part­ment (IMD) has been is­su­ing op­er­a­tional fore­casts for the date of mon­soon on­set over Ker­ala us­ing an in­dige­nously de­vel­oped sta­tis­ti­cal model with a model er­ror of ± 4 days.

The south­west mon­soon ad­vances over the An­daman Sea nor­mally around May 20 with a stan­dard de­vi­a­tion of about one week. The strong con­vec­tive ac­tiv­ity has been ob­served over the equa­to­rial In­dian Ocean for the last sev­eral days. A well marked low pres­sure area has formed over the In­dian Ocean which will con­cen­trate into a de­pres­sion and move north-west­wards. As a re­sult, con­di­tions are be­com­ing favourable for the on­set of south­west mon­soon over Ni­co­bar Is­lands, south An­daman Sea and parts of south Bay of Ben­gal around May 17 and ad­vance­ment over the en­tire An­daman Sea close to its nor­mal date. Past data sug­gest that there is no as­so­ci­a­tion of the date of mon­soon ad­vance over the An­daman Sea ei­ther with the date of mon­soon on­set over Ker­ala or with the sea­sonal mon­soon rain­fall over the coun­try.

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