PRAGGNANANDHAA IS CLEARLY THE ONE THAT NO CONTENDER CAN AFFORD TO TAKE LIGHTLY, HAVING FINISHED RUNNER-UP TO CARLSEN IN LAST YEAR’S WORLD CUP
India has its task cut out against some serious competition in its FIDE Candidates showdown.
five-time World champion Viswanathan Anand played in this premier event between 1991 and 2014.
This time, five out of 16 Candidates are Indians. R. Praggnanandhaa, D. Gukesh and Vidit Gujrathi are among the eight men while K. Humpy and R. Vaishali are part of the eight ladies battling it out. Clearly, this is the best advertisement for the growing presence of Indians among the elite of the sport.
The double-round robin format and the time-control [see next page] suit the stronger players in the fray. Since the oldest players in their respective sections — 37-year-old Humpy and 36-year-old Hikaru Nakamura — are young enough to deal with the testing duration of the competition, their experience could come in handy.
Let us take a look at the prospects of the Indians, who are strong enough to upset the odds:
R. Praggnanandhaa: Firmly on the learning curve, his graph reflects an upward swing. Blessed with the right temperament and groomed for bigger challenges on a chess board, this 18-year-old is the strongest of the three Indians figuring in the bottom half of the seedings.
Going entirely by seedings, not many would give the Indians a chance of topping the field. But these days, barring the presence of Magnus Carlsen, no top seed seems to carry a better chance of winning than his closest challengers. With the World No. 1 and five-time World champion choosing to stay away from the World championship cycle, there are no clear favourites, in the strictest sense of the term.
The current bunch of Indians who have gate-crashed into elite competitions and periodically beat stronger players hold the promise of playing way above their rating. Praggnanandhaa is clearly the one that no contender can afford to take lightly. After all, exceeding all expectations, he finished runner-up to Carlsen in last year’s World Cup. It was this result that earned Praggnanandhaa a place among the Candidates.
Going by his opening repertoire, Praggnanandhaa appears well prepared with both colours. He is willing to play the waiting game and stays alert to seize his chance. In situations where time is at a premium and quick calculations are needed, Praggnanandhaa can be trusted to stay cool and find the stronger of the available alternatives.
What makes him different from his compatriots is his ability to deal with disappointing results. Praggnanandhaa is quick to get over a missed win ending in a draw, or a rare loss from a seemingly drawn position. Mentally, he does not take long to get ready for the next game, without carrying any baggage of a disappointing result from the previous round.
From the days of the pandemic when cash-rich online Tour took roots in shorter duration formats, Praggnanandhaa slowly caught the attention of the chess world by getting some astounding victories, including a few over Carlsen. He stayed undefeated against several other elite players to underline his growing stature. After establishing himself as a serious contender among the elite in rapid and blitz, Praggnanandhaa turned his focus to the classical format. As a result, in the 24-month period between March 2022 to March 2024, his classical rating rose from 2619 to 2747 and established him firmly among the World’s top-20.
Given his sustained training under illustrious coach R. B. Ramesh, Praggnanandhaa is expected to continue to add to his reputation. Toronto could see him pull off some stunning results.
Format (Open): Players compete in a double round-robin basis for a total of 14 rounds. The time control is 120 minutes for the first 40 moves, followed by 30 more minutes for the rest of the game. There’s a 30-second increment starting on move 41. No draw agreement before Black’s 40th move. Prizes: Total prize-fund is 500,000 euros — 48,000 euros for the winner, 36,000 euros for the runner-up, and 24,000 euros for the second runner-up. Additionally, players receive 3,500 euros for every half-point scored.
D. Gukesh: One of the sensational success stories since March 2021, Gukesh is another teenager to look forward to. The youngest in the fray, the 17-year-old Chennai-mate of Praggnanandhaa is equally capable of enthralling the chess world in Toronto.
Gukesh’s consistency, resulting in winning tournaments, is unmatched among the Indians in the past four years. His rise was phenomenal as all the hard work done during the lockdown with coach Grandmaster Vishnu Prasanna bore fruit in the first quarter of 2020. Since then, there has been no looking back for this bundle of talent.
A clutch of titles and a dramatic rise in the rating— from 2563 in March 2021 to 2747 in March 2024 — speaks of Gukesh’s commitment to succeed. During this period, he became the talk of the chess world when he won eight straight games on the top board for
India ‘B’ in the 2022 Chess Olympiad in Mahabalipuram. It was his performance that was instrumental in India winning the bronze medal. No wonder, Gukesh took the gold on the top board, much like teammates Nihal
Sarin on Board Two and Praggnanandhaa on Board Three.
In the 2023 World Cup, in August, Gukesh overtook Anand in live ratings to become
World No 9. After winning the two games in the second round against Misratdin Iskandarov, his live rating moved ahead of an almost inactive Anand’s. He eventually stayed ahead till the next rating list was published on September 1, 2023, and became the first
Indian in 37 years to figure ahead of Anand in FIDE’S published rating list.
Though he missed the chance to qualify for the Candidates from the World Cup he did just enough to eventually grab a spot, by finishing second to Fabiano Caruana in the 2023 FIDE Circuit. Since Caruana had already qualified by being third in the World Cup, Gukesh took the spot meant for the FIDE Circuit winner.
But the days running up to the cut-off date to make the grade was suspenseful. Gukesh did his chances a huge favour by winning the 2023 Chennai Grandmasters title in late December. He then waited to see whether Dutch Anish Giri wins the World rapid or blitz titles. Once Giri faltered, Gukesh’s path stood clear.
What makes him such a special talent? Many believe that Gukesh’s ability to calculate accurately in complicated positions sets him apart. Much like Carlsen, he has the patience to wait for weaknesses or even a move of sub-optimal strength to seize his chance. That’s the reason he has managed to emerge stronger from seemingly equal positions even until the late middle-game.
Unlike Praggnanandhaa, Gukesh takes his chances and that’s the reason he is involved in more decisive battles than his more famous teammate.
Vidit Gujrathi: Vidit (right) is the one who gets a lot less credit than he deserves. He broke the barrier that kept the likes of P. Harikrishna and K. Sasikiran from firming up their spots among the top-25 players. Vidit surpassed the 2700-rating mark and stayed up there but soon the teen-brigade comprising Nihal Sarin, Praggnanandhaa, Arjun Erigaisi and Gukesh took the focus away from Vidit’s consistency. His rise has been gradual but steady like some of his seniors.
It is indeed poetic justice that Vidit finds a place in the Candidates, after missing the route via the World Cup. Not many remember him
knocking out Ian Nepomniachtchi in the World Cup. That also meant four Indians were in the quarterfinals and not a single Russian!
Vidit booked his Candidates berth in style. He won the prestigious 2023 FIDE Grand Swiss — the strongest Open tournament of the year — despite being the 15th seed.
In a strong field with 114 players from 37 countries, Vidit scored 8.5 points to finish half a point ahead of second seed Hikaru Nakamura. To put things into perspective, it is pertinent to recall that 16th seed Arjun Erigaisi finished fourth (7.5 points), top seed Caruana (7) was 10th, eighth seed Praggnanandhaa (7) was 13th and fifth seed Gukesh
(5) ended up a distant 81st!
The timely success also underlined Vidit’s capabilities of excelling in strong fields and more importantly, his maturity to handle pressure. After starting with a defeat to Dutch Erwin L’ami, Vidit won thrice on the trot, drew the next two and won twice to reach 5.5 from seven rounds.
He then drew with Nakamura and Andrey Esipenko before finishing off with victories over Bodgan-daniel Deac and Alexandr Predke to cap the tournament of his life. Interestingly, during his campaign, the only higher seed Vidit faced was Nakamura.
Overall, Vidit’s percentage of wins is way over his losses, with nearly 50 per cent of his games ending in draws. Though he had a forgettable Prague Masters recently where he stayed winless, drawing six and losing three in a row, Vidit is expected to use this as a wake-up call for Toronto.
A fine ambassador of Indian chess and widely followed on social media platforms, 29-year-old Vidit will be keen to make a show of this opportunity. He has the game, experience and the skill set to make his presence felt. A perpetual underdog without much pressure of expectations, trust Vidit to spring a surprise or two.
K. Humpy: What can be said about the most experienced player in the fray! She has been India’s signature in women’s chess for nearly two decades. She is not only the 2011 World Championship runner-up but also the 2019 World rapid champion! That shows she has the game to deal with any challenge on a chess board. And this format is just right for the 36-year-old to prove she is ready to add the World crown that is missing from her collection.
As the third seed, Humpy is among the six players who’ve retained their Candidates spots from the previous edition, held in a
knockout format, in 2022. Going entirely by her head-to-head record against the seven other contenders, Humpy’s prospects look very bright. She won the only decisive game against top seed Aleksandra Goryachkina and has a 4-0 record against second-seeded defending champion Lei Tingjie.
Even against fourth seed Kateryna Lagno (3-1) and fifth seed Tan Zhongyi (4-0) Humpy has a clear psychological edge. Though she needs to improve her narrow 4-5 record against Anna Muzychuk, Humpy will be keen to prove her superiority over the last two lower-rated players — R. Vaishali and Nurgyul Salimova.
For the record, Humpy and Vaishali have been involved in a drawn game while the experienced Indian is yet to face the 20-year-old Salimova.
Since the format allows a player to face the other twice, once with each colour, Humpy is expected to do well. Her vast experience should come in handy in a field that has a fine mix of players, young and seasoned. Preparation is the key in events and Humpy is known to be a keen student. What is truly heartening to note is that she has lost none of the spark of the past when she made a comeback after becoming a parent.
She has the patience needed to do well in the classical format. Her consistency is testimony to her determination to give her best each time. No wonder, she stands third in the all-time list of women players with the highest rating. Only Judit Polgar (2735), who tops the list, and Hou Yifan (2687) are ahead of
Humpy (2625).
So overall, Humpy enters the field knowing that she has a great chance to make this opportunity count. It is all about getting the right momentum for her campaign. Of the five Indian Candidates in Toronto, Humpy has the best chance of returning home as a World championship challenger.
R. Vaishali: She is the surprise package. In a field where the top six
As the third seed, Humpy retained her Candidates spot from the previous edition. Going by her head-to-head record against the seven other contenders, Humpy’s prospects look very bright.
players belong to the World’s top-10 list, Vaishali took the path that’s least expected from a lesser-rated player. Like Vidit in the Open section of the 2023 FIDE Grand Swiss, Vaishali took the honours in the women’s section. She also ensured one of the two spots available for the Candidates with a round to spare!
Though new to the world’s elite and thereby lacking the experience of playing top notch tournaments,
Vaishali could find the going tough. Being the penultimate seed, there are no expectations from her and that could work to her advantage. She surely has the game to scale greater heights in the women’s circuit and this opportunity should make her a better player.
In her own opinion, she is getting better at dealing with disappointing results. Unlike her brother Praggnanandhaa, Vaishali finds it difficult to overcome losses or blown-away winning possibilities. A good start should steady the nerves and thereafter, Vaishali can be expected to spring surprises. With coach Ramesh around in Toronto, she will be in her comfort zone.
Vaishali appears better prepared with a few more additions to her opening repertoire. No doubt, she has sound chess basics, good calculating abilities and defensive skills. In addition, the rise of her brother in the chess world has inspired this simple girl to perform amazingly well.
The past six months have been amazing for Vaishali. A place in the
Candidates, the Grandmaster title and the Arjuna Awards have helped improve her self-belief and made her work harder.
Unlike in the past, she can be expected to play to win tournaments. In Toronto, even a draw against six higher rated rivals is going to fetch her rating points that could take 15th-ranked Vaishali closer to the World top-10 bracket.
Vaishali has everything to play for. Though no one counts this rising Indian to be among the favourites for the title, expect this determined girl to make a strong bid. Expect her to play freely, bring down or slow down the progress of the front-runners and stay in the hunt. Candidates tournament from April 4-22. Rest days on April 8, 12, 16 & 19. Tie-break rounds on April 22
if required.
Format (Women): Players compete in a double round-robin basis for a total of 14 rounds. The time control is 90 minutes for the first 40 moves, followed by 30 more minutes for the rest of the game. There's a 30-second increment starting on move 1. No draw agreement before Black’s 40th move. Prizes: Total prize-fund is 250,000 euros — 24,000 euros for the winner, 18,000 euros for the runner-up, and 12,000 euros for the second runner-up. Additionally, players receive 1,750 euros for every half-point scored.
The flavour may be more Indian at the Candidates in Toronto, but two Americans look the strongest contenders along with a Russian who has won the tournament’s last two editions. R. Praggnanandhaa, D. Gukesh and Vidit Gujrathi have ensured India has a strong presence — not to mention Koneru Humpy and R. Vaishali in the women’s event. But they are up against very strong opposition.
Americans Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura should be most people’s favourites. And Russia’s Ian Nepomniachtchi cannot be ignored.
In order to win the tournament and thus earn the right to challenge Ding Liren for the World Chess Championship, the Indians have to find ways to race ahead of their formidable opponents.
Caruana and Nakamura have been among the world’s best players for a long time. Caruana is ranked second in the world behind five-time World champion Magnus Carlsen, who relinquished the title, paving the way for last year’s World title match between Ding and Nepomniachtchi.
Caruana is the player to beat in Toronto. With 2804 Elo points, he is just 26 behind Carlsen, the world’s strongest player of all time. Caruana’s peak rating was 2844 and, apart from Carlsen (2882), only one other player has ever been rated higher — Garry Kasparov (2851).
Caruana is also a former winner of the
Candidates. He won it in 2018 and took on Carlsen for the World championship later that year. After all the 12 games (classical format) were drawn, he lost in the tiebreaker (rapid). Caruana, in fact, had an opportunity to challenge Carlsen in the 2016 World championship as well: he finished second to Sergey Karjakin in the Candidates that year.
Caruana, who became the World No. 2 for the first time in 2014, has been a consistent performer. He has a strong game with no apparent weakness. Carlsen has in fact gone on record saying that he is the world’s second-best player.
Nakamura may not be as consistent as Caruana in classical chess, but he too has been one of the world’s top talents for a long time. And he has been a beast in speed chess.
Besides the formats of shorter time controls, he also enjoys playing Fischer random chess, a format in which he won the world title in 2022. He is, of course, a formidable presence in classical chess, in which he is ranked third in the world with 2789 points, behind Carlsen and Caruana.
He had become the World No. 2 in 2015 and a year before that, when FIDE began publishing ratings for the rapid and blitz variations of chess, he was the World No. 1 in both the lists.
Nakamura, who is also a hugely popular streamer, will certainly be one player that all his competitors will be wary of in Toronto. “He has very good chances,” says veteran
Indian Grandmaster Pravin Thipsay.
“I feel Caruana has the best game suited to win a tournament like the Candidates, with its double round-robin format. I will be surprised if anybody other than Caruana or Nakamura wins the Candidates this time around. Those two look easily the best players in the field.”
If you want to bet on someone other than the talented American duo, there is Nepomniachtchi, who is playing under the flag of FIDE because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He has already contested two World title matches (against Carlsen in 2021, and then against Ding last year).
Nepomniachtchi, ranked seventh in the world, is the winner of the last two Candidates tournaments. He won the 2020-21 Candidates tournament, which was disrupted by COVID-19, and then again in 2022,
when he remained unbeaten, finishing 1.5 points ahead of the second-placed Ding. Later, Ding got the chance to play the World title after Carlsen decided not to defend his crown.
So Nepomniachtchi clearly knows a thing or two about winning the Candidates tournament. Expect him to mount a strong challenge for his third straight Candidates title.
The Iranian-born French prodigy Alireza Firouzja may not have been as experienced or as successful as Nepomniachtchi at the Candidates, but he is a young exciting talent.
Carlsen had in fact said that he would be defending his World title only if Firouzja had emerged as the Candidate in 2022.
The teenager, however, could only finish sixth in a field of eight in that Candidates tournament. The World No. 6 will want to put up a better performance this time around.
The women’s section looks more open. Humpy certainly has chances, while her younger compatriot Vaishali has shown remarkable improvement of late.
The reigning Candidates champion Lei Tingjie (right), who lost to compatriot Ju Wenjun in the World championship last year, is one of the main contenders. The other Chinese in the field, Tan Zhongyi, is a former World champion.
Russia’s Aleksandra Goryachkina is the highest ranked female player in Toronto, with a rating of 2553.
The other Russian, Kateryna Lagno, and Ukraine’s Anna
Muzychuk are experienced campaigners, too.