Keep talking to Pakistan

The brazen attacks are in keeping with a pattern that the Pak Army employs whenever a new civilian government is elected to office — show the government it does not have a free hand on India policy

On February 19, 1999, as Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee drove into Lahore through the Wagah border for a historic summit, holding out the first hint of peace between the two warring neighbours, few knew that the Indian Premier had been persuaded to give up the option of flying into the Punjab capital and arrive by bus, instead, in response to the Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s heartfelt plea for a grand gesture. Or, that the guest list on that bus had filmstar Dev Anand on board, because he was the Bollywoodcrazy Mr Sharif’s favourite actor.

But — and here’s the rub — it is widely believed that the protests by the Jamaate- Islami that erupted and quickly spiralled out of control as Mr Vajpayee entered the heart of the old city, also had Mr Sharif’s tacit approval.

But then, running with the peace hares and hunting with the jihadi hounds has been part of every Pakistani Prime Minister’s survival kit. It gives civilian leaders the room to manouevre in the limited space made available to them by a Pakistan military that calls the shots on issues both domestic and foreign, and has consistently employed jihadi terror as a force multiplier against the “enemy”; be it Indian, Afghan or, now, American.

That’s no secret in Delhi, Kabul or Washington. But with the killing of five Indian soldiers by the Pakistani Army, at Chakkan da Bagh on Tuesday, 500 metres inside Indian territory, Dr Manmohan Singh’s government must examine whether anything has changed in Pakistan, before it commits to any substantive peace talks, even with an avowed India peacenik like Mr Sharif.

Here’s why not much has changed. And why it must.

Re- elected for an unprecedented third term, Mr Sharif has lost no opportunity to chant the peace mantra.

But while the notoriously double- dealing InterServices Intelligence and its Army patrons assured him he had a carte blanche on India, they simultaneously unleashed the jihadis on the LoC to perpetuate the myth that elements outside the Pakistan Army’s control, irregulars with a mind of their own, were hell- bent on “freeing” Kashmir.

Mr Sharif should have seen it coming. Indian soldiers patrolling the LoC were beheaded, their heads taken back across the border as grisly trophies. The number of infiltrations in the last two months alone equal all the attacks over the last one year. Terror training camps in Pakistan thrive under the benign eye of its Army.

Clearly, Monday’s shooting match wasn’t intended to test Indian readiness. The brazen attacks are in keeping with a pattern that the Pakistan Army employs whenever a new civilian government is elected to office, with a single- point agenda — show the civilian government it does not have a free hand on India policy, making it impossible for either side to move forward.

For Dr Singh’s government, already on the back foot ahead of elections, making any concessions on the Pakistan front invites the all too predictable hysteria from the ultra- nationalist Opposition BJP and the electronic media, which increasingly impacts policy. So if Mr Sharif wants the Army out of the India equation, there must be less grandstanding, more action.

He has signalled his alarm by chairing a meeting on Thursday with his foreign policy adviser Sartaj Aziz and foreign secretary Jalil Abbas Jilani, hours after returning from Umra in Saudi Arabia.

A day earlier, Mr Aziz had said the Pakistan government was looking forward to the New York September icebreaker, when the two Prime Ministers are scheduled to meet. All they were waiting for, Mr Aziz said, was a nod on the agreed agenda, a dead giveaway that preparations for talks had been going on for weeks.

But in fixating on peace with India and not tackling the Army’s braggadocio, Mr Sharif may have overplayed his hand. Dr Singh is conflicted on whether to go ahead with his meeting with Mr Sharif. With another 45 days to go for what will be Mr Sharif’s third tryst with an Indian Prime Minister, if it goes through, there is gloom in Islamabad as well. “Kargil will be nothing compared to what could be attempted next,” one of Mr Sharif’s advisers said.

Thwarted once by a general, Mr Sharif can see the pattern repeating itself. Even Gen. Pervez Musharraf, who warmed up to the role of the subcontinent’s most unexpected game- changer, was run out of office. After a nonpolitician like Asif Ali Zardari made it to the presidency and sent out feelers to India, along came 26/ 11, the brazen attacks on Mumbai, which India cannot — and rightly so — get past. At Sharm el- Sheikh in 2009, when Dr Singh agreed to discuss India’s “involvement in Balochistan as it had nothing to hide,” the furore in India over Dr Singh’s capitulation sank that initiative.

Mr Sharif’s attempt to forge a pax romana with Dr Singh, therefore, must begin by treading a path he has gone down before — replacing an Army Chief, a coup and years in exile. But it’s worth a try all the same.

With Pakistan Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani demitting office in a month, it will allow Mr Sharif to have his own man as chief, obviating the need for an ill- judged opening of communication lines between the two armies when both countries now pride themselves on being democracies. Chipping away at Prime Minister Sharif’s authority as head of a Pakistan state, where the executive and judiciary — and an independent media — have gained in strength even as the Army has lost ground, would be extremely impolitic.

Like Dr Singh, Mr Sharif believes business and trade are the best investments in peace. Dr Singh, in preparing to have his last shy at leaving a lasting legacy, must recognise there is a peace dividend in staying the course with Pakistan, and not playing into the hands of Pakistan’s establishment — or Indian drama queens — by calling off peace talks at every provocation.

He must de- link dialogue from conflict resolution, not build sky high expectations on deliverables, and forge a rapport that will stand the two leaders in good stead. As they exchange a “Chaddo ji, chaddo ji ” in New York, this could be the two leaders’ last chance for peace for years to come.