‘ 47% want an independent Scotland’

‘ A ‘ Yes’ victory is now a real possibility,’ YouGov president Peter Kellner, one of Britain’s most respected pollsters, said. ‘ A close finish looks likely.’

A poll showing support for Scottish independence at its highest ever level threw the fate of the United Kingdom into question on Tuesday, just two weeks before Scots vote on whether to secede.

The poll by YouGov showed the unionist lead had shrunk to 6 percentage points from 22 a month ago as support for independence jumped to 47 per cent in August, suggesting a major shift in opinion ahead of the Sept. 18 referendum.

After months of polls showing nationalists heading for defeat in the vote, the YouGov poll for the first time raises the real prospect that secessionists could achieve their goal of breaking the 307- year- old union with England.

“A ‘ Yes’ victory is now a real possibility,” YouGov president Peter Kellner, one of Britain’s most respected pollsters, said. “A close finish looks likely.”

Polls show different levels of support for the unionist campaign and although none have shown the independence camp in the lead, the sudden surge indicated by the poll electrified Britain’s political class after its summer break.

A vote to breakaway would be followed by negotiations with London on what to do about sterling, the national debt, North Sea oil and the future of Britain’s nuclear submarine base in Scotland ahead of independence pencilled in for March 24, 2016.

If Scots voted to leave the United Kingdom, Prime Minister David Cameron would face calls to resign ahead of a national election in May 2015 while Labour’s chances of gaining a majority could be scuppered if it lost its Scottish legislators.

Sterling fell to near a five- month low against the dollar and also slipped versus a generally weak euro on Tuesday, while the cost of hedging against sharp swings in the pound rose as investors sought to insure against the risk of secession.

Traders saw further losses as the vote approaches.

“A Scottish ‘ Yes’ to independence poses far more questions than it answers but my best guess is that a ‘ Yes’ would trigger a 3- 5 per cent fall by sterling as an initial reaction,” said Kit Juckes, currency analyst at Societe Generale.

YouGov’s Mr Kellner, 67, said the poll data was so astounding that when he first saw it, he double checked to see if there had been a sampling error. But he said that after checking the data, he was certain a real movement had taken place.

“When I first saw our data, I wanted to make sure the movement was real,” he said. “I am certain it is.”

The poll was carried out on Aug. 28- Sept. 1 and 1,063 people were questioned.

When respondents were asked how they would vote in the referendum, 42 per cent said they would vote for independence while 48 per cent said they would vote against. Eight per cent said they did not know and 2 per cent did not intend to vote.

It was the first time YouGov has showed support for “Yes” above 40 per cent and support for “No” below 50 per cent. About 4 million Scottish residents have a vote in the referendum, so the poll indicates 320,000 voters are still undecided.