America, Iran & the great game
The framework accord signed in Lausanne between Iran and the world’s leading powers on paving the way to get Tehran off its suspected nuclear weapons track in return for the lifting of nuclearrelated sanctions, which have badly hurt Iran’s economy for over a decade, is a signal diplomatic marker in international affairs with potentially wide repercussions. It is to be seen if the conservatives in both the United States and Iran, as well as Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the leading Arab powers fronted by Saudi Arabia, succeed in torpedoing the effort which is scheduled to come to fruition with a comprehensive agreement by the end of June this year.
US President Barack Obama has staked nearly all the political capital he has at this stage of his presidency on the success of this diplomatic enterprise, which he excavated when it lay in limbo for 10 years and energised 18 months ago, in the face of fierce political opposition in his own country. The final days of the negotiations in Switzerland were physically and politically draining for the Iranians as well as the US, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany ( P5+ 1), besides the EU as an entity.
Mr Obama will doubtless be using every political resource he has to ensure that his opponents in Congress don’t succeed in passing further sanctions against Iran while delicate diplomatic negotiations are ongoing. How he handles the Israeli and the Arab opposition may give us an inkling of the broader politics of West Asia in the near and middle terms. Israel regards an Iran with nuclear weapons as an existential threat. For the cash- rich Sunni Arab states, Shia Iran is a civilisational red- rag, and the nuclear factor lends this a fiercer dimension.
If through a gigantic diplomatic effort Tehran’s capabilities to forge nuclear weapons can be removed and the country placed under the most intrusive international nuclear surveillance in history, the Israelis and the Arabs should ordinarily be happy. But they are sulking. Perhaps they calculate that if Iran’s capabilities are being taken out, their own nuclear ambitions — real or latent — can also become suspect and vulnerable.
If the great game involving the US and the current Iranian leadership succeeds, considerable political, economic and commercial space could free up in the Arab world, and outside. India should extend these proceedings a welcoming hand. Its own future moves in relation to the Afghanistan conundrum in the wake of American re- calibration in the region could be influenced in a positive way if nuclear sanctions on Iran are lifted. Our commercial ties with Tehran would also receive a boost. If the nuclear agreement concerning Iran can be extended to other areas, an animus factor in West Asia will be lessened in intensity.
Mr Obama will use every political resource he has to ensure that his opponents in Congress don’t succeed in passing further sanctions against Iran while diplomatic negotiations are on