A sweetheart deal?

With the doggedness shown by the United States and Iran over hammering out an outline agreement on the latter’s nuclear programme, now subject to crippling sanctions, outlook for the region promises to take a turn that can be described as path- breaking. The truth is that since the Iranian revolution, events in West Asia were determined by Tehran’s opposition to what it called the Great Satan.

There were, of course, valid reasons for Washington’s embrace of monarchies such as those of Saudi Arabia, for their oil wealth as much as for standing guard over American interests. But the US-Iranian enmity since the fall of the Shah has been a constant factor for decades tipping the scales decisively in favour of the Sunni kingdoms and against the activities of Shia Iran in spreading its wings in the region.

However, many events, some of them undertaken by the US in its own interests, have favoured the spread of Iranian influence. The most dramatic of them, the American military intervention in Iraq, gave Tehran a key Shiamajority state, a choice fruit that fell into its lap.

The civil war in Syria again helped the Iranian cause because Tehran rooted for the A law it e-ruled country of President Bashar al-Assad in a Sunnimajority state. Washington has now come to the conclusion after four years of bloody war that President Assad cannot be easily dethroned. In co nf es s i o n a l - b a s e d Lebanon, Iran is sitting pretty commanding the total loyalty of the powerful Hezbollah movement. In Bahrain, a minority Sunni monarchy is holding down a Shia majority with the help of the US and the Sunni Gulf kingdoms.

After its brief flirtation with the Arab Spring and a freely elected President for the first time in its hoary history, Egypt has reverted to its familiar military dictatorship, this time under the former head of the Army, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. In the recent Arab League summit triggered by the Houthi-led advances in Yemen, for the better part a Sunni- led dispensation, Egypt proposed and carried a proposal for a joint Arab force to cope with what were described as new dangers. Indeed, the alarming advances of the Houthis, a Shia sect, in a country that shares a large border with Saudi Arabia were intolerable for Riyadh, leading to its air military intervention.

For the Sunni kingdoms, it is not a pretty picture. The rise of the Persian Iran in the region to the detriment of the Arabs is a disturbing development. What is even more disturbing is the determined attempt by the Obama administration to sup with the devil and seek to compromise over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

In the perspective of the Gulf kingdoms, compromising with Iran on the basis of giving it the option of becoming a nuclear power after a one- year breakout time is tantamount to colluding to make it a nuclear- armed power. Ironically, these views proximate those of Israel’s combative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

There is, of course, the fierce opposition of the Republicans in the US, fuelled by the powerful American Jewish lobby President Barack Obama has to contend with even as he has been trying to make a deal with Iran the legacy of his two- term presidency. Specifically, he has to ensure that the Republican- controlled Congress and Senate do not carry the day by passing additional sanctions against Iran.

Equally, in Iran the hardliners are waiting for the deal to fail to revert to their familiar America- bashing theme. It is well understood that the stakes are high for both sides — and the world — but the task of President Hassan Rouhani is somewhat easier because he had been working under the shield of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

In geostrategic terms, the US- Iran enmity has been frozen long enough and in a region wracked by turmoil and mayhem resulting in great losses of life, destruction of cities and misery for millions of displaced, a reordering of relations could be of some benefit.

The consequences will remain with the region for long and in the longer term the Arab world will have to accommodate, up to a point, the legitimate influence of Iran and its co- religionists.

One of the many tragic aspects of the current strife is a sharper division of the Shia-Sunni cleavage in the Muslim world even as extremist Sunni sects have morphed into many groupings, some of them offshoots of Al Qaeda, ranging from al-Nusra to the ISIS and the Islamic State under the guise of a caliphate.

Now that the US- Iran deal has crossed an important hurdle, there is much hard work to do in translating into technical and supervisory provisions the broad understanding that has been reached by burning the mid night oil.

The target date is the end of June this year.

The essence of the agreement substantially slashes Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, closes down a potential plutonium- producing facility, has at least a 10year framework for Iran observing the provisions and has a one- year window for Tehran to break out of obligations to make a bomb. The progressive lifting of sanctions, a highly contentious issue, will follow.

If successfully implemented, it would give Tehran an opportunity to advance economically and give it greater confidence to take its place in the world. That could, in a sense, bring greater predictability to a region seething with many discontents. Whether it could also lead to renewed efforts by the Sunni kingdoms to seek nuclear arms, possibly with Pakistan’s assistance, remains to be seen.

In immediate terms, President Obama needs all his time and energy to gather his forces and supporters to man the barricades against the joint Republican- Israeli assault. It is a given in American politics that Israel and its powerful lobbies exercise an outsize influence on US policy- making.

In part, the President’s famed oratory might help rally the troops and convince a majority that the deal is to America’s benefit. US observers are suggesting that it is a high- risk gamble.

Now that he has taken it, the world has its fingers crossed.

In Iran, hardliners are waiting for the deal to fail to revert to America-bashing. The stakes are high for both sides but Rouhani’s task is easier since he is working under the Supreme Leader.