When poll pundits failed to hit bullseye

As exit polls started predicting political parties’ fate and political pundits began forecasting the performance of national parties and regional heavyweights in the five states that went to polls recently, there have been instances of such predictions going absolutely wrong.

Results of all the five states — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, that went to polls will be declared on March 11.

Ever since Narendra Modi-led BJP came to power at the Centre in 2014 and started strategising to expand its base across the country, Bihar was the first state where saffron poll strategists as well as most of the exit polls were proved wrong.

During Bihar elections in 2015, where the BJP-led NDA was pitted against JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance, most exit polls had predicted a close fight. However, Nitish Kumar-led ‘grand alliance’ stumped these exit polls by winning 178 of the total 243 seats.

BJP-led NDA could manage only 58. The ABPNielsen poll had predicted 130 seats for the JD(U)-led alliance against108 for NDA. Times Now-C-Voter had predicted 122 to the grand alliance while News X had predicted 130 to 140 seats for it. Both had given 111 and 90-100 seats respectively to the NDA.

Similarly, in Tamil Nadu where most of the exit polls had favoured DMKCongress alliance coming to power in 2016, the then Chief Minister and late AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalithaa proved their predictions incorrect by retaining the top seat.

The News Nation TV exit poll had given 95-99 seats in the 234-member assembly to AIADMK and 114-118 to the DMKCongress alliance. The Axis-My India exit poll had predicted 124-140 seats to the DMKCongress alliance, 89-110 to the AIADMK. However, J Jayalalithaa led AIADMK returned to power by winning 136 seats.

Even during the last general elections in 2014, no exit poll predicted BJP winning 71 of the total 80 parliamentary seats in UP or Mayawati’s BSP cutting a sorry figure.