Extreme sea level rise may become yearly trend by 2050

New York: Extreme sea levels, that are expected to be experienced once every 100 years on average, may become a yearly occurrence in many areas by 2050, a study warns. Researchers including those from University of Central Florida (UCF) in the US confirmed that rising sea levels has occurred steadily during the past century and is expected to accelerate in the future. The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, used newly available data and advanced models to improve global predictions when it comes to extreme sea levels. The results suggest that extreme sea levels will likely occur more frequently than previously predicted, particularly in the west coast regions of the US and in large parts of Europe and Australia. These extreme events could occur every decade or even every year, in many places by 2050, researchers said. “Storm surges globally lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damages each year, and yet we still have a limited understanding of the likelihood and associated uncertainties of these extreme events both today and in the future,” said Thomas Wahl, an assistant professor at UCF. When an extreme event collides with continually rising seas, it takes a less intense storm, such as a Category I hurricane, to inflict as much coastal damage as a Category II or III storm would have had when the seas were lower, they said. Researchers used representative sample of 20 different methods for predicting extreme sea levels. They focused on the measures of uncertainty that accompany any prediction, but that are particularly vexing in the analysis of extremes. Interspersing sea level rise with the latest predictions of extreme sea level events, the team was able to illustrate the dramatic effect one has on the other and pinpoint regions of the world that are specially threatened.