Survey upbeat, predicts 7.5% growth
India will be reinstated as fastest growing major economy in 2018- 19 Economic Survey cautions on high fuel prices, correction in stock markets
The Economic Survey 2017- 18 on Monday predicated that economic growth will accelerate in 2018- 19 to up to 7.5 per cent, “re- instating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy.” This pick- up in the growth will be led by buoyancy in exports, a forecast predicted on the global economy accelerating and rebound in the private investment at the domestic front.
“A series of major reforms undertaken over the past year will allow real GDP growth to reach 6.75 per cent this fiscal ( year) and will rise to 7.0 to 7.5 per cent in 2018- 19, thereby reinstating India as the world’s fastest growing major economy,” said the Survey tabled in Parliament by finance minister Arun Jaitley.
The Survey, prepared by the finance ministry’s Chief Economic Adviser ( CEA) Arvind Subramanian, sets the stage for annual Budget on February 1.
The Economic Survey said that Central Statistics Office ( CSO) erred by pegging India’s growth at a fouryear low of 6.5 per cent in 2017- 18 ( CSO data is used as the main input while compiling various financial targets in Union Budget). “This estimate had not fully factored in the latest developments in the third quarter, especially the greater- than- CSO forecast exports and government contributions to demand,” it said. The Survey said that GDP growth for 2017- 18 as a whole is expected to be close to 6.75 per cent.
However, the Survey forecast that economic management will be challenging in the coming year due to persistently high oil prices. “They would affect inflation, the current account, the fiscal position and growth...” it said.
The other risk which can emerge is if the booming stock markets ( Sensex touched a new lifetime high of 36,283 on Monday) corrected sharply, provoking a “sudden stall” in capital flows.
It also warned against setting “overly ambitious” fiscal consolidation target in the Budget on Thursday which could
◗ The Survey said Central Statistics Office erred by pegging India’s growth at a four- year low of 6.5 per cent in 2017- 18
With growing rural to urban migration of men, there is widespread feminisation of the agriculture sector.
Women are increasingly donning multiple roles as cultivators, entrepreneurs and labourers, according to the Economic Survey 2017- 18 released here on Monday.
The survey said that world over there was empirical evidence that women have a decisive role in ensuring food security and preserving local agro- biodiversity.
“Rural women are responsible for the integrated management and use of diverse natural resources to meet the daily household needs”. The survey goes on to say that this requires that women farmers should have enhanced access to resources like land, water, credit, technology and training which warrants critical analysis in the context of India.
Apart from this, the differential access of women to resources like land, credit, water, seeds and markets needs to be addressed.
Towards this, the government has been implementing various schemes which help improve the entitlements of women farmers, which will prove to be advantageous in bridging the policy gaps which exits in the sector.
The Economic Survey also said that climate change could adversely affect farmers income by up to 20- 25 per cent in the medium term.
It warned of the need for “dramatic” improvement in irrigation, use of new technologies and better targeting of power and fertiliser subsidies.
It has also asked the government to take radical follow- up action to achieve its objective of addressing agricultural stress and doubling farmers’ income.
Since agriculture is a state subject and an open political economy question, the survey strongly advocated a mechanism similar to the GST Council to bring more reforms in the agriculture sector and boost farmers income.