Koreas on the path to détente... But will Trump & Kim derail it?
■ Discussions with South Korean officials reveal that they expect the denuclearisation of the North to be on the agenda of North- South talks but do not foresee any early commitment on the part of the North to freeze and reverse its nuclear weapons programme
The highly publicised trip of South Korea’s national security advisor Chung Eui- yong to Pyongyang on March 5- 6 is reminiscent of President Richard Nixon’s national security advisor Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to Beijing in 1971 — both in outcome and possible impact on geopolitics. The Nixon- Mao Summit in 1972 had led to transformation of US- People’s Republic of China relations and the proposed summit between South Korean President Moon Jae- in and North Korean supremo Kim Jong- un next month is likely to lead to a détente between the two ideologically separated siblings.
The rapidly unfolding events on the Korean peninsula since the reconciliatory new year message of Mr Kim have taken the world by surprise but reflect a well- thought out plan by the two Korean leaders to resume the “Sunshine Policy” of 19982007 which had been abandoned by the then conservative South Korean dispensation in 2010.
President Moon had included reconciliation with the North as one of his objectives in his election campaign in 2016 and is clearly returning to the policy pursued by his political mentor former President Roh Moo- hyun, who had a summit meeting with Kim Jong- II, father of Mr Kim in October 2007. At that summit, the two leaders had agreed to the realisation of the earlier June 15 joint declaration of 2000, promotion of a three- party or four- party summit meeting to resolve the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula and active promotion of inter- Korean economic cooperation projects.
The June 15 North- South joint declaration had been adopted in the first ever summit between the then leaders of the two Koreas in June 2000 and had also included agreement to promote peaceful reunification, to solve humanitarian problem, to encourage cooperation and exchange in their economy, and to have a dialogue between the North and the South. As per this declaration, the North- South ministerial and military talks were held four times and North- South Red Cross talks thrice in 2000- 2001. As a result of these talks, numerous separated families from the two sides had family reunions in Pyongyang and Seoul.
After the terrorist attacks of September 2001, the US called North Korea part of the “Axis of Evil” and the North had cut off any further talks with the South. In 2003, the issue of nuclear weapons in the North had resurfaced and the US accused North Korea of breaching the Agreed Framework of October 1994 between the US and North Korea to freeze North Korean nuclear research programme.
After coming to power in 2003, President Roh stayed committed to his predecessor’s policy, continued to supply the North with humanitarian aid and started the Kaesong Industrial Park in the North in 2005 with an investment of $ 325 million. With the defeat of the liberals in 2008 elections, this “Sunshine Policy” of South Korea came to a halt.
The “Sunshine Policy” of Presidents Kim Dae- jung and Roh Moo- hyun was aimed at extending economic assistance to the North and restoring lost communications between the two ideologically separated siblings. In the forthcoming May summit at Panmunjom, the truce village at the Demilitarised Zone, the two leaders are expected to follow the same broad agenda.
Since late last year, it is clear that South Korea is in the driver’s seat as far as the US- South Korea policy towards North Korea is concerned. Once President Moon made it plain to President Donald Trump that he would not countenance any military conflict on the Korean peninsula, the US had no alternative but to talk with the North.
There is a widening gap between the objectives of South Korea and the US in their policies towards North Korea. While for the US, denuclearisation of the North is at the top of the agenda, for South Korea, peace on the Korean peninsula is the paramount priority.
For President Moon, it is critical to keep the unpredictable President Trump on his side. In their meeting in Washington on March 8, NSA Chung conveyed to President Trump Mr Kim’s “commitment to denuclearisation and the pledge that North Korea will refrain from any further nuclear and missile tests”.
Taking even his own advisors by surprise, President Trump told Mr Chung that “he would meet Kim Jong- un by May to achieve permanent denuclearisation”. This could be an attempt by President Trump to keep media focus on TrumpKim summit. Humouring President Trump, Mr Chung also told him: “( Trump’s) leadership and his maximum pressure policy, together with international solidarity brought us to this juncture”.
In his media briefing in Washington, Mr Chung said that South Korea, the US and Japan and other partners ( China?) involved in the North Korean issue are optimistic about continuing the diplomatic process but would continue pressure and sanctions against the North “until North Korea matches its words with concrete actions”.
Mr Chung also reaffirmed that Republic of Korea along with the US and Japan is “fully and resolutely committed to the complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula”. President Trump tweeted that a deal with North Korea is “very much in the making”. He also spoke with President Xi Jinping and according to Peoples’ Daily, the US “profusely thanked and put high importance on China’s important role”.
However, there has yet been no mention at all in the North Korean media about the proposed meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Kim.
Discussions with South Korean officials reveal that they expect the denuclearisation of the North to be on the agenda of North- South talks but do not foresee any early commitment on the part of the North to freeze and reverse its nuclear weapons programme.
It would be reasonable to hope that North- South summit would be held in April with tangible outcomes for inter- Korean relations. Any progress on the denuclearisation issue would await the TrumpKim summit. But the road to the US- North Korea summit would be bumpy and treacherous as the egos and one- upmanship practised by both President Trump and Mr Kim could derail the process even before the peace train commences its journey!
There is a widening gap between the objectives of South Korea and the US in their policies towards North Korea. While for the US, denuclearisation of the North is at the top of the agenda, for South Korea, peace on the Korean peninsula is the paramount priority.