A welcome first sign of an India-Pak thaw
The joint statement released by the militaries of India and Pakistan on Thursday, February 25, on observing the ceasefire at the Line of Control and in all other border areas, and respecting previous agreements in this regard, is a positive development that deserves to be built upon. It marks the first sign of thaw in India-Pakistan relations since January 2, 2016, when Pakistan-based terrorists struck the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot a mere eight days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore on Christmas Day to celebrate the birthday of then Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif.
Understandably, this was taken as a sign that the Pakistan Army, which calls all the shots in that country, was not comfortable with the potential of an evolving entente between the two countries.
Since then it has been a roller-coaster ride of negativity in bilateral ties, as the Uri terror attack of September 2016, India’s “surgical strike” days later, the subsequent Pulwama terrorist attack in early 2019 that killed 40 CRPF personnel, India’s retaliatory airstrike across the LoC, and the immediate response of a Pakistani fighter jet crossing the LoC, showed.
Through this sorry saga, in response to overtures by Pakistan PM Imran Khan, New Delhi maintained that “talks and terror cannot go together”. Clearly, this left room for the idea that dialogue leading to mutually favourable long-term bilateral outcomes — which will benefit the region as a whole — is indeed possible if terrorism is taken off the menu.
After five years of a hostile stasis in the relationship, Pakistan Army chief Gen. Qamar Javed Bajaj, in a February 3 address, attempted to mark a change of course in ties with India. He said: “We stand firmly committed to the ideal of mutual respect and peaceful coexistence. It is time to extend the hand of peace in all directions. Pakistan and India must also resolve the longstanding issue of Jammu and Kashmir in a dignified and peaceful manner.”
The joint defence statement suggests that India was not unresponsive, and both sides got on to practicalities. Across governments, India has held that it is the Pakistan Army that is the fly in the ointment, and that a turn in a beneficial direction is contingent on the Pakistan Army desiring it. Evidently, Gen. Bajwa’s remark has emerged as a possible catalyst.
How the thaw unfolds lies in the future. Over the decades, Pakistan Army has tied itself into knots by cultivating terrorist outfits as its surrogates operating in Kashmir, in other parts of India, and in Afghanistan with which India seeks to deepen its friendship.
If the Pakistan Army chief’s initiative has to survive, he must ensure that J&K is out of bounds for terrorism. And this means the message must go down to the homegrown Kashmir outfits as well. Further, terrorist actions against all Indian entities in Afghanistan must also cease.
The joint statement is a military statement. At some point, if things go well, it needs to acquire a political dimension at the level of the two governments. The statement notes that it was “agreed to address each other’s core issues and concerns which have (the) propensity to disturb peace and lead to violence”. Such a formulation covers terrorism as well as Kashmir. India should not fight shy of taking the “K” word on board in all its dealings with Pakistan.
If the Pakistan Army chief’s initiative has to survive, he must ensure that J&K is out of bounds for terrorism. This means the message must go down to the homegrown Kashmir outfits as well.