Ahead of polls, talk of change in Punjab and UP

Congress-run Punjab and BJP-ruled Uttar Pradesh have seen considerable political activity from within the ruling parties in recent weeks, leading to speculation of possible change in guard. That may appear somewhat far-fetched. Assembly polls in these states are just over six months away and changing the leader so near an election is hardly common. Even so, the changes that the Congress and the BJP may bring about in Punjab and UP respectively, if any, are likely to be a matter of considerable interest, not least because of the context. In UP the grapevine is abuzz with stories of dissonance between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Adityanath, both regarded as the heaviest weight Hindutva icons. In Punjab at the present juncture, Chief Minister Amrinder Singh is veritably the tallest politician cutting across parties. Even so, cricketer-turned politician Navjot Sidhu, who gave up his place in the cabinet, has become a thorn in the CM’s side. His steps are meant to further his ambition to be the next CM, should the Congress return to power. He has succeeded in gathering a small group of MLAs around him.

Not wishing to let the matter hurtle down any further months before the state polls, the Congress leadership at the Centre felt obliged to invite every single MLA, including Mr Sidhu and, of course, the CM, to Delhi for discussions. No one needed persuading that it would be foolhardy for the party to go into the election under any leader other than the Captain. Therefore, the adjustments and compromises to be made without upsetting the applecart will be keenly watched. It would be surprising if the CM, known to be his own man, will happily concede to the raucous dissident the position of deputy CM. If not, will there be more fireworks? And will that be an advantage to the Akali Dal, the opposition party which has broken off with traditional ally BJP to back the months-long farmers' agitation against the Centre? The CM has evidently calculated it won't. If the Congress’ inner-party discord is to be brought to a close for now, the former opening batsman might do well to accept an organisational position. At the Centre, the Gandhis may be welladvised not to lean in the direction of backing a bickering dissident who, for years, is somehow seen as having their ear.

In UP, speculation of change of guard remains rife. This is because the mismanagement of the fight against Covid has become too glaring to ignore, even within senior BJP circles, including legislators. But the CM is fighting for his turf. He is said to have ignored the PM on accommodating a new legislator, a retired Gujarat cadre IAS officer, as the deputy CM. Combined with evident popular dissatisfaction on the handling of Covid, this added dimension has caused a flurry of visits to Lucknow of senior RSS and BJP officials, and later confabulations at high levels in New Delhi. It is to be kept in view that while the CM is rabidly Hindutva-minded, he is not from the RSS but the Hindu Mahasabha. He may therefore be hard to persuade to step down. It is in this uncertain atmosphere that all concerned appear to have agreed to call a truce, even if it is uneasy? Electoral consequences, if any, are in the future. But UP is the gateway to Delhi for the BJP. That links the party’s fate in the next Parliament poll with the upcoming UP election.

In UP, speculation of change of guard remains rife. This is because the mismanagement of the fight against Covid has become too glaring to ignore, even within senior BJP circles. But the CM is fighting for his turf.