Experts predict political realignments, but after polls

New Delhi Even though the battle lines are getting hardened as the general election draws near, with the BJP’s presumptive prime ministerial aspirant Narendra Modi virtually taking on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and challenging him to a public debate on policies and programmes, it is increasingly becoming clear that a major realignment of political forces is in the offing.

But this is more likely after, rather than before, the general elections that have to be held by April-May, political observers say.

The way Gujarat Chief Minister Modi presented himself to the nation as a ‘shadow PM’ - despite the fact that his party is yet to nominate him as the NDA's candidate - the subsequent public spats between the BJP and the Congress over his attacks on Manmohan Singh and the quiet distancing from his positions by people like L K Advani and even the Shiv Sena point to interesting times ahead as parties, factions and PM wannabes make their calculations for the upcoming electoral battle.

Talks of realignments were also triggered by the way both the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) - sworn political enemies in Uttar Pradesh - supported the Congress when the BJP was attacking it in parliament on the alleged illegal land deals of Robert Vadra, sonin-law of Congress chief Sonia Gandhi.

Both the regional rivals are indicating that they may continue to support the Congress after the 2014 polls - if they get their pound of flesh. With the two big national parties - the Congress and the BJP - not sure of getting a majority of their own in the next Lok Sabha, the new ruling coalition at the centre would be shaped by the realignment of political forces after the polls. Till then, the political situation is likely to remain fluid.

The reason: Alliances in five big states - Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Ben- gal, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra - which together send over 200 MPs to the 543member Lok Sabha, are still not decided.

"The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh and the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal-United in Bihar may choose to go it alone in the polls and opt for an alliance afterwards," Nisar ul Haq, who teaches political science at Jamia Millia Islamia University said.

The JD-U recently parting ways with the BJP citing the ascent of Modi as in-charge of the 2014 campaign may be seen in this light, he added.

The challenge for UPA and NDA would be to rope in new ones.

According to Pradip Dutta, who teaches political science at Delhi University, "It is difficult to say whether the Congress-led UPA or the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has an edge at this point."

"Though a coherence is needed before the 2014 polls, post-poll changes are more possible," Dutta said.