SEEDS OF A FRUITFUL FRIENDSHIP SOWN
Alot has been said and written about the recent meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the US President Donald Trump. Surely the meeting was worth taking note of as Trump chose the Indian leader to be the first 'official guest' at the White House ever since the former occupied the Washington's Presidential Palace six months ago. Media in the US and particularly in India carried every detail of the visiting Indian Prime Minister during his three-day stay in the US. Praises were showered and so were some rather bitter pieces of criticism from expected corners about the outcome.
The trend continues even ten days after the meeting. It seems as if there is a lot to analyse, and possibly overanalyse. There were some notable surprises, including the strong language used when condemning Pakistan for its refusal to crack down on terrorist groups operating across borders. There were also some welcome signs of continuity, including the United States' recognition of India as a major defence partner, support for India's membership to export control regimes and the UN Security Council, and commonality of views on Afghanistan's stability and on cyberspace.
Indian government should be more than satisfied with these broad contours for cooperation, which should put to rest some concerns about the Trump administration's orientation, particularly its attitude towards India vis-a-vis Pakistan. Of course, there was also plenty of symbolism: the bear hugs, the warm rhetoric, and the invitation extended to Ivanka Trump for the Global Entrepreneurship Summit in India. There was the high profile participation on the US side, including many senior cabinet officials, two of whom – Secretary of Defence James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson – called upon Modi separately for private discussions. US officials stated that inviting Modi to a working dinner in the White House was “meant to signal respect.”
However, amid all the surprises, the pomp and personal rapport, two takeaways really stand out from this meeting. One concerns India-US convergence in the Indo-Pacific region. This was the main highlight from the visit which underscored the central strategic rationale for the bilateral relationship. The Modi-Trump meeting reflected an effective continuation of the Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region that was agreed upon in January 2015 when Republican President Barack Obama was heading the US Administration. The latest statement encompasses common principles concerning the freedom of navigation, overflight, and commerce and the peaceful resolution of disputes in the region. Indian Ocean security – whether US involvement in the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium or the centrality of the Malabar naval exercises – features prominently.
The US offer to sell Sea Guardian unarmed drones could mark a major contribution to India's ability to monitor the Indian Ocean, just as India's earlier acquisition of P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft proved to be a game-changer. This alone can be considered as the most significant achievement of the meet.
The joint statement issued after the meeting talks about a passage on regional economic connectivity. This is a significant document. It outlines a set of principles, specifically that such connectivity should be based on "the transparent development of infrastructure and the use of responsible debt financing practices, while ensuring respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, the rule of law, and the environment." These principles reflect closely India's prior statement of May 13 concerning its refusal to participate in the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing.
Some Indian commentators believed that India was being "isolated" when it opted to boycott the Forum, a major diplomatic initiative of the Chinese government. But the US endorsement of principles first articulated by India, coupled with similar concerns described separately by Japan and the European Union, has put India in the unique position of being a normative leader when it comes to regional connectivity, an increasingly important arena of international competition. The challenge, moving forward, is how India can further articulate, promote and enforce such norms in its extended neighbourhoods and beyond. If strategic considerations witnessed a remarkable degree of confluence, bilateral issues still reflect some differences between Trump's America and Modi's India. Beyond the broad principles of free trade, open markets, and converging values, these issues were notable for their absence in the terse joint statement. In many ways, this reflects the changed political dynamics of the United States under Trump. The two sides gave a nod to more balanced trade and reintroduced "clean coal" to the energy cooperation portfolio.
President Trump and Prime Minister Modi, standing together in the Rose Garden, also highlighted the two leaders' shared domestic objectives of economic growth, infrastructure spending, anti-corruption efforts, and tax reform, while Modi appreciated Trump’s motto: "Make America Great Again." Many items from the traditional agenda that had focused on India's transformation – from women's empowerment and climate change to smart cities and educational initiatives – were also conspicuously absent. Some prior strategic projects, including defence technology, trade initiative and the aircraft carrier technology working group also did not feature, being either politically tainted by their association with a previous administration or appearing too one-sided for White House's current incumbents.
The Indian Prime Minister boarded the plane to reach Netherlands with a broad smile on his face. Immediately after he left Washington, US Vice President Mike Pence offered an articulation of his administration's approach to bilateral business relations with India in a speech to the US-India Business Council. While clearly stating Trump's economic priorities, he reinforced the message that “our two great nations [the United States and India] are bound...by commerce.” Noting that US exports to India support roughly 200,000 jobs, he highlighted civil aviation, energy, and defence as three sectors in which business with India is a boon for the American economy. Perhaps this shows that although panoply of bilateral issues went unaddressed at Modi's first meeting with Trump, some ways might still be found to make 'America First' compatible with India's transformation.
This was Modi's first encounter with President Trump. Not much was expected from this tour. As years pass and the two leaders of the oldest and largest democracies of the world meet more often, they can perhaps find a more amicable solution to maintain a long-lasting friendship.