German polls: Victory, warning & challenges
The result of Germany’s general elections last week was on expected lines: a victory for Angela Merkel who will remain chancellor for the fourth consecutive term; a loss for Martin Schulz-led Social Democratic Party (SPD); and a stunning success for the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which will enter the Bundestag, the German parliament, as the third largest party for the first time in six decades since the second World War.
While Merkel’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and its Bavarian alliance partner CSU won 33 per cent votes, sharply down from 41 per cent in the previous elections, SPD crashed to 20.5 per cent, a loss of around 5 per cent. On the other hand, AfD won 12.6 per cent of votes, a gain of 8 per cent. Though Merkel emerged victor, for the centre-right CDU and its main rival centre-left SPD, this has been their worst election performance since 1949. However, despite the setback both remain dominant parties in the new Bundestag as also in German politics, though the rise of AfD and its parliamentary presence will be a matter of concern for the two centrist parties.
With Schulz having ruled out continuation of the grand collation between SPD and CDU/CSU, which has dominated most of Merkel’s tenure since 2005, Merkel’s only option to form a stable government is to opt for the ‘Jamaican alliance’ – it is so called because the parties’ colours make up the Jamaican flag – with the resurrected pro-business and liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens. This is likely to take weeks of drawn-out negotiations between them. But such an assemblage has never been tried in the national parliament before and it is also fraught with difficulties over several issues, including a clash over environmental issues between FDP and Greens as also differences between them on the issue of immigration.
Marked by a dull campaign, the September 24 election was said to be a very quiet affair, though the last four years were not so quiet for Merkel. In the last two years, Germany has taken in roughly a million refugees; it also took a lead in bailing out bankrupt European Union (EU) economies with billions of Euros. And yet there was little doubt that Merkel would win her fourth run at the chancellorship. That’s largely because the Germans see in Merkel a leader who is not only politically strong and resilient but also Europe’s most powerful leader.
A lot has happened in Europe and elsewhere in the last four years as well: Brexit, Trump, political upheavals and electoral setbacks for mainstream centrist parties and the rise of anti-establishment, far-right forces in several EU nations. Given political changes in Western Europe, Germans voted for stability, peace and strong leadership.
While it is undeniable that Merkel, as conservative centre-right leader, has held her fort quite well and dominates political scene, she has secured her fourth term albeit with diminished authority. Her major failure is her inability to halt the march of right-wing populists. The key to her success is her strategy of co-opting many of her mainstream rival parties’ policies. Immigration is a highly contentious issue in Germany and Merkel’s open door policy of 2015 was exploited by the far-right extremists and nationalists who opposed Merkel’s generosity. But it is also a fact that the nationalists are not only anti-immigrants but are also Eurosceptics and against globalisation.
Most of the support for AfD came from the eastern part of Germany, thanks to the fear and anxieties triggered by the refugee influx and its aftermath which is said to be the single biggest reason for AfD’s surge. The focus of centrist parties’ campaign on consensus and status quo rather than change also contributed to AfD’s success, as antiestablishment sentiment helped the party get protest votes. Almost 60 per cent of AfD voters voted against all other parties and only 34 per cent voted out of conviction for AfD.
AfD’s surge is a challenge to the status quo. It is also a sign of political fragmentation and polarisation. Four years ago, it was just a fringe group that failed to mobilise enough support in 2013 elections. Its rise to now becoming a key opposition party with 80 seats is definitely an achievement for a largely dysfunctional group that was formed in protest against Greek bailout programmes and later morphed into an anti-immigrant force after the refugee crisis of 2015. The advantages AfD will now enjoy include state funds, an increased television exposure and more speaking time in the parliament. This will introduce an element of toxicity and ultranationalism in federal politics of Germany.
Though AfD’s success has delivered a warning to mainstream parties, it does not signify Germany’s shift to the extreme right. On the contrary, Germany will continue to tread the middle path of consensus and integration, as mainstream parties got over 80 per cent of votes. With SPD deciding to sit in the opposition, the centre-left party will play the role of a major opposition party in parliament, thus denting AfD’s political space. All mainstream parties have also rejected its message and are against entering into a pact with it. This will isolate AfD politically.
Merkel’s fourth term as chancellor is also likely to be tougher than any of her previous terms. Though Germany is an economic powerhouse of Europe and is enjoying better times in economic terms, there are signs of trouble ahead. Several issues will require her attention: ailing steel industry, diesel engines crisis, digitisation lag, managing economic robustness that will be hit by ominous demographic crisis in a few years because of low birth rate and the big challenges of integrating and assimilating refugees into mainstream society and workforce.
Stability of political centre in Germany is good news and a sign of continuity for the country and Europe. After Emmanuel Macron’s victory in French election earlier in the year, Merkel’s victory will add to Euro-zone’s stability. Since lately EU is being run increasingly from Berlin rather than Brussels, Merkel will need to focus on challenges at home as well as on taking forward reforms in EU, including the introduction of European Monetary Fund. In Macron, she has a dependable ally for the European project. But given the policy preferences of her new coalition partners, it’s going to be a challenging time ahead for Merkel, both at home and as an anchor of stability in the Euro-zone.
The author is an independent Mumbai-based senior journalist
MERKEL’S fourth term as chancellor is also likely to be tougher than any of her previous terms. Though Germany is an economic powerhouse of Europe and is enjoying better times in economic terms, there are signs of trouble ahead.